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Wells Fargo's Chief Macro Strategist Gary Thayer explains why the growth in corporate profits is a positive sign for the economy. "The latest report on inflation-adjusted gross domestic product shows the economy continues to grow but only slowly. The good news is corporate profits are growing faster than the economy is expanding. This is an encouraging sign that the economy has the capacity to expand further, if the recent shock to confidence proves to be temporary."
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Wells Fargo's Chief Macro Strategist Gary Thayer is out with his weekly commentary and focuses on corporate earnings growth and consumer confidence. "During the past month, investor confidence dropped sharply following the downgrade of the U.S. debt rating and ongoing financial problems in Europe. However, at the same time, companies that make up the S&P 500 reported generally good earnings for the second quarter. The decline in the stock market when earnings are increasing creates an attractive valuation in U.S. equities, if the U.S. economy does not fall into recession."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 8/16/11 8:56 am
Wells Fargo's weekly commentary reviews the chances of a recession and highlights a lot of good news that has been ignored by the media recently. "A storm watch means the conditions exist for possible storms. Alternatively, a storm warning means a storm currently exists and is a potential threat. Using this same alert system, we believe that a recession watch condition currently exists, rather than a recession warning. Some of the pre-conditions for a recession currently exist, but a recession may not occur."
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Wells Fargo discusses the markets over the last few days and what may have lead to the selloff. "The markets were extremely volatile this past week. Just when investors were relieved that the United States would not default on its debt, other worries about the health of the U.S. economy, problems in Europe and a debt downgrade increased. Given these concerns, investors shunned stocks and ran to the perceived lower risk of bonds. Consequently, the stock market suffered its biggest decline since last summer, although this year's drop was faster than last year's decline. Unfortunately, decent employment news was overshadowed by these other concerns."
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Wells Fargo is out with their weekly commentary, focusing on the US dollar as a "thermometer" for the markets. "The US dollar, a key indicator for finding international investment value, has been steady since April, reflecting a global economic moderation. As the slowdown fades, the dollar should gain on the main developed-market currencies but lose ground against the emerging-market currencies. Portfolios should remain balanced, ahead of expected opportunities as the economic pace again quickens."
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Wells Fargo's The Week discusses the recent economic slowdown across the globe. "The current global economic slowdown is likely temporary. Investors are advised to return to our recommended long-term allocations on international bonds, equities and commodities. We suggest this balanced stance entering the second half of 2011, anticipating new opportunities, once the uncertainty about the global economic expansion subsides."
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Wells Fargo is out with their 2011 Midyear Economic and Market Outlook, discussing what's changed and developed in the economy and markets in the first half of 2011, and what investors should expect during the second half of the year. The report addresses topics such as the economy, inflation, interest rates, currencies, commodities and more. A brief executive summary is included for those who prefer not to read the entire report.
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Wells Fargo's The Week highlights the recent rally in the bond market as the stock market has weakened. "Earlier this spring, many investors worried that bond prices could drop sharply when the Fed ended its quantitative easing program this month. However, bonds have rallied instead. That's because the economy is cooling off and commodity prices have decreased slightly. On a short-term basis, the bond market could rally further, especially if commodity prices continue to decline."
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Chief Macro Strategist at Wells Fargo, Gary Thayer, looks at the history of inflation and the total increase in consumer prices per decade. "As consumers we know that prices of most goods and services go up over time. However, the rate of increase is not uniform. Prices sometimes go up fast. Other times they go up slow. Investors need to take inflation into account when anticipating both the performance and purchasing power of their portfolios over time."
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Wells Fargo's weekly commentary focuses on the importance of diversification, especially with the uncertainty surrounded the end of QE2. "We have been saying for some time, that many of the current market trends have been fueled in part by the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing, or QEII as the traders call it. Moreover, we have been concerned that once QEII ends in June, these trends could change. During much of the past month, the stock market was soft, suggesting that other investors probably share these concerns. We remain cautious on equities during the second half of this year, but longer-term positive."
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