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Wells Fargo's weekly commentary examines investor sentiment and believes it may be too bearish. "Recent surveys show business and consumer sentiment have increased to the highest levels in several years. At the same time, investor sentiment has deteriorated to its most bearish reading since the stock market lows last fall. Investors are worried once again about the European debt crisis. However, we believe investor sentiment may be too bearish, if the situation in Europe stabilizes, and the U.S. economy continues to expand at a modest rate, as business and consumer sentiment suggests."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 5/14/12 2:08 pm
Chief Macro Strategist at Wells Fargo, Gary Thayer, explains why he believes the recent pullback in the market has created a buying opportunity for investors. "Two months ago, investors seemed to be increasingly optimistic that the worst of last year's troubles were behind us. But at the same time, many were reluctant to get back into the stock market because it had already rallied strongly during the first quarter. The stock market has pulled back since early April, creating a buying opportunity. However, sentiment is not as positive now, and many investors may again be reluctant to get into the market. Our work suggests that pull backs are still buying opportunities. We continue to expect the stock market to be modestly higher at year end."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 5/8/12 1:32 pm
The market and U.S. Presidential election cycles are discusses in this week's commentary from Wells Fargo's Chief Macro Strategist Gary Thayer. "Investors are closely watching the outcome of this month's European elections and are trying to anticipate potential market action ahead of the U.S. elections in November. Out analysis of the average monthly percentage change in the S&P 500 between 1946 and 2011 reveals Presidential election years can be a challenge for the U.S. stock market. However, other macro economic factors, especially inflation, may also play an important role in stock market performance this year."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 4/30/12 11:24 am
U.S. economic growth is discussed in Wells Fargo's latest commentary, comparing this year to 2011. "Recent economic new indicates the U.S. economy continues to expand at a modest pace consistent with our outlook for this year. In particular, first quarter 2012 economic growth was better than first quarter 2011 growth. Nevertheless, many economy reports are coming in below analysts' elevated expectations. As a result, investors are less bullish than they were a couple of months ago when expectations were low and many reports were positive surprises. We continue to expect consumer and investor sentiment to improve as this year progresses."
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This week's commentary from Wells Fargo examines the upcoming earnings season and expectations for operating margins. "Corporations are starting to report first quarter 2012 profits, and analysts are looking for the operating earnings of the companies that make up the S&P 500 to increase modestly compared to the first quarter of 2011. Currently, profits are not rising as fast as they did during the first two years of the economic recovery. Nevertheless, earnings are still increasing and valuations remain attractive compared to the past two decades."
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Gary Thayer, Chief Macro Strategist at Wells Fargo, reviews investor sentiment and why he believes that U.S. economy is doing better than other economies. "We have maintained that investor sentiment is likely to increase this year based on our macro outlook for modest economic growth, low inflation and easy money policies in many countries. Of course, sentiment will not increase every week. But investor confidence is likely to build over the course of this year, if as we expect, the economy and the market pass important tests revealing the underlying resilience of the U.S. economy and the U.S. stock market."
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Wells Fargo's weekly commentary addresses the likelihood of rising oil prices materially hurting the economy and stock market. "Many investors are worried that rising oil prices will dampen economic growth this year like last year and in 2008. As this point it looks like the economy will not be hurt as much by rising oil prices. Other factors could cause this year's stock market rally to pull back at some point, but we would not expect a repeat of 2011 or 2008 because of rising oil prices alone."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 3/28/12 7:23 am
Gary Thayer, Chief Macro Strategist at Wells Fargo explains why stocks have recently performed better than bonds. "Recent market activity supports our view that the stock market is likely to outperform the bond market this year. Investors are more optimistic about the economy and the stock market while the demand for bonds appears to be declining as investors are less fearful than they were last year."
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Wells Fargo's Chief Macro Strategist Gary Thayer examines the divergence between gold prices and the stock market as an indicator of investor anxiety. "Recent market action indicates that investor sentiment has increased from last summer's lows. In particular, the U.S. stock market has recovered from its 2011 lows while the gold market has declined from its 2011 highs. This market action is consistent with our view that investor sentiment is likely to improve this year."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 3/12/12 1:36 pm
Gary Thayer, Wells Fargo's Chief Macro Strategist, looks back at the three year bull market run in stocks and why he believes buying on the dips is a good idea. "The U.S. stock market remains in an upward trend that began three years ago during the depths of the 2008-2009 recession and financial crisis. The good news is the fundamentals are still positive and market valuations are favorable. Therefore, the current bull market probably has further to run. We continue to favor buying stocks on pullbacks."
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