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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 1/31/12 2:57 pm
Gary Thayer, Chief Macro Strategist at Wells Fargo, believes the market is more likely to experience a correction rather than a reversal in its recent upward trend. "New economic data show that the U.S. economy grew at the fastest pace in six quarters during the final three months of last year. The economy is clearly not in recession but still faces many problems. Investors have responded positively to the good economic news during the past few months, and the stock market has rallied considerably from its 2011 lows last fall. With all this good news factored into current prices, the stock market recovery is probably due for a time out."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 1/23/12 1:55 pm
Chief Macro Strategist at Wells Fargo, Gary Thayer, warns investors to be prepared for increased volatility despite the good news on the U.S. economy. "The U.S. stock market advanced further last week as investor sentiment improved and risk aversion decreased. As a result, some market indexes are now near the highs of early last year. The U.S. equity market has come a long way in the past three and a half months, thanks to good news on the U.S. economy and less bad news on the European debt crisis. However, the stock market is vulnerable to a pullback because profit-taking is likely to follow the big gains since the early October lows."
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Wells Fargo's Chief Macro Strategist Gary Thayer examines the potential help that foreign countries could provide to the U.S. via interest rate cuts. "The U.S. economy has weathered many problems during the past year and has proven more resilient than many investors expected. The good news is the U.S. economy could benefit if inflation subsides this year. That’s because several of the foreign countries that raised interest rates to fight inflation early last year could cut interest rates early this year if inflation decreases as the global economy slows down."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 1/9/12 11:30 am
Wells Fargo's Chief Macro Strategist Gary Thayer shares his thoughts on the upcoming fourth quarter earnings season. "The fourth-quarter earnings reporting season begins this week. The good news is expectations are low despite the economy showing some signs of improvement. We believe investors are more likely to see better-than-expected results rather than weaker-than-expected results."
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Wells Fargo's Chief Macro Strategist Gary Thayer takes a look at the level of investor fear, which seems to be declining due to positive US economic news. "Recent market action suggests that investors are less fearful than they were last summer. However, investors are still cautious. If the stock market continues to recover as the economic fundamentals suggest, sentiment is likely to turn more positive."
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Wells Fargo's Investment Strategy Committee is out with their 2012 economic and market outlook. Broken down into four concise and easy to read sections, the Chief Strategists for economic, domestic equity, international equity and fixed income share their thoughts for what to expect in the coming year.
The Committee sees a gradual improvement across the US economy and market as part of their 2012 year-end forecast. The S&P 500 and the international index MSCI EAFE rise to 1,325-1,375 and 1,500, respectively. Existing home and total vehicle sales increase, the unemployment rate decreases to 8.0% and the Federal deficit is trimmed from $1.3 trillion to $1.2 trillion. Finally, they expect a 10-year treasury rate of 3.0% and a 30-year treasury rate of 4.0%.
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Wells Fargo's Chief Macro Strategist Gary Thayer takes a look at 2011 and the key events in this week's commentary. "Earlier this year, the stock market was up nearly 100% from the lows in March 2009. But, as the year progressed, the market took back more than 20% of those gains, disappointing many investors. Fortunately, the market is finishing the year on a better tone."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 11/14/11 12:35 pm
Wells Fargo Chief Equity Strategist Stuart Freeman takes a look at the economic data which appears to be driving the recent stock market gains. Europe and the Super Committee are also discussed. "The strong October stock market rally has continued into November. Investor sentiment appears to be lifting with a pickup in signs of growth and economic reports as well as a third quarter in which nearly 70% of companies outperformed "Street" estimates, and in which S&P 500 revenues increased by 11.4%."
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Wells Fargo's Chief Macro Strategist Gary Thayer discusses consumer sentiment and consumer confidence in today's volatile environment. "A week ago, economic news was not good enough for investors worried about the risk of recession and the ongoing financial crisis in Europe. However, sentiment turned positive again when the economic news continued to be good and European policymakers took additional steps to support their economy. On the positive side, consumers have continued to increase spending despite the drop in sentiment this summer."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 9/26/11 9:36 am
Wells Fargo's Chief Macro Strategist Gary Thayer examines the market's reaction to the announcement of Operation Twist and increases his odds of recession to 35% from 25%. "Investor sentiment quickly turned negative again last week because of the growing concerns about European debt problems, and the limited move by the Federal Reserve to boost economic activity. However, the latest decline in sentiment suggests that confidence remains depressed. Consequently, the risk of recession is increasing."
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