13 posts tagged with "Wells Fargo" Page 1 of 2 pages 1 2 >
The U.S. recovery is slowing down as negative headwinds dampen economic activity. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that the U.S. economy is likely to expand modestly because other favorable tailwinds are supporting growth.
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Many investors are worried that the economy is headed for a double-dip recession and believe the Fed is powerless to prevent it. We disagree. In fact, Fed Chairman Bernanke, speaking at the Kansas City Fed's annual conference on monetary policy, repeated that the Fed has the tools and is ready to use them to support the economy if needed.
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Many investors are increasingly worried about deflation. We continue to believe that modest inflation, not deflation, is the most likely scenario going forward. Nevertheless, it may be useful to examine alternative strategies for deflationary versus inflationary environments.
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Many investors are worried that the economy is about to fall back into recession. These concerns are normal at this point in the economic cycle. As long as the economy can avoid any unexpected negative shocks that depress confidence and spending, another recession is unlikely at this time.
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Over the past several decades, it has been easy for investors to assume that, in general, the sovereign debt of developed market countries was safer than that of emerging market sovereign debt. However, the fundamentals of the world economy are changing. A combination of the growth of the emerging markets, especially the BRIC countries, along with prudent management of their fiscal situations combined with structural problems in many developed market economies has blurred the distinction between the two categories.
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When driving a car, your focus of attention shifts back and forth between the distant horizon and the road immediately ahead. Experienced drivers do this naturally, but this can be a challenge for new drivers. Looking off into the distance allows you to see where the road may be turning. But, you also need to keep your eyes on the road in front of you so you don't hit a pot hole. Successful investing often requires the same shift in focus.
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If you are worried and suffering from emotional problems, you may go to a therapist for advice and reassurance. You want to hear the therapist say that everything will be fine. You don't want to hear him or her exclaim, "Wow! You've got big problems!" Unfortunately, that's what many people thought they heard Fed Chairman Bernanke say when he testified last week.
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"During my recent vacation I had an opportunity to visit many beautiful places, and like most people, I took a lot of pictures. However, when I reviewed those pictures later, I realized that they just didn't capture the whole view. This is a problem with photography. When you focus on one or two things, you don't always see the bigger context in the individual shots. Focusing on individual factors and missing the bigger picture is not just a problem in photography. Investors often experience this same problem."
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Wells Fargo summarizes their most recent economic and market outlook for the remaining half of 2010. A must read for those who want a quick update. No one said the recovery would be easy, but it's nonetheless a recovery, even if it is slow but growing.
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A big concern for investors last week was an editorial, suggesting that the U.S. economy will fall back into recession next year when the Bush tax cuts expire. We disagree. The course of the economy is seldom determined by one factor alone. We do believe that higher taxes will dampen economic growth but do not expect another recession, unless something else happens on top of the tax increase.
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