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Chief Investment Officer of equities at Federated Investors, Stephen Auth, examines the sovereign debt situation in Italy and the chances of Italy defaulting. "It's one thing if Greece were to default (though that's looking less likely); it's entirely another if the euro-zone’s third-largest economy struggles to pay up. The worry is that nearly $260 billion of Italy's sovereign debt rolls over this year, with a significant chunk coming due next month. If investor appetite for Italian debt doesn't hold up, Italian bond yields may spike, Spain may follow and the risk-off trade is back on with a vengeance. We think this sort of thinking is misguided."
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Philip Orlando, Chief Equity Market Strategist at Federated Investors sees three headwinds to U.S. economic growth in 2012. "The U.S. economy was clearly gaining momentum as we headed into year-end 2011, marked by strengthening trends in employment, manufacturing and consumer spending. There's little question, however, that in the early stages of 2012, three exogenous economic headwinds threaten this positive development: the likely PIIGS-driven recession in the euro zone; possible fiscal drag from ongoing policy dysfunction in Washington; and the prospect of a hard landing among critically important emerging-market economies, particularly in China."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 12/1/11 8:21 am
Wentworth Hauser & Violich's fall commentary reviews the economic situation in major markets and addresses the long-term structural problems within Europe. "Indeed, the most immediate threat to the U.S. economy would appear to be the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. The sovereign debt of the various European countries is held throughout the banking system in Europe and Great Britain. A default could adversely impact the global financial system."
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Philip Orlando, Chief Market Strategist for Federated Investors, dives into the most recent trade data and explains why it could lead to an upward revision of third quarter GDP. "Quarterly GDP growth has risen this year from its trough at 0.4% in the first quarter, to 1.3% in the second quarter, to a preliminary gain of 2.5% in the third quarter and finally to a level that may be prospectively equal to or higher than that in the fourth quarter. So the U.S. economy, in our view, is strengthening from a temporary soft patch, not rolling over into a double-dip recession."
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Churchill Management Group’s latest commentary focuses on the market rallies and weak technical indicators. “It continues to appear we are in that choppy period. The risk of being whipsawed during short-term rallies is high, so we will want to proceed with caution to ensure that the table is set for a sustainable run that will have legs and not just one that is bouncing around within a trading range.”
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Lord Abbett's Milton Ezrati discusses U.S.-China trade relations and the potential for Congress to label China as a "currency manipulator." "If Congress can label China a "currency manipulator," then tariffs aimed at China become likely, as does Chinese retaliation in a pattern that would hurt world trade, growth prospects in both countries, and asset values on both sides of the ocean and beyond."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 11/1/11 3:02 pm
Dividend manager Federated Investors examines the latest third quarter GDP number for the US. "[The] advanced report for third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - which posted a solid gain of 2.5% due to stronger-than-expected trends in consumer spending, business investment and exports - refuted the bearish myth of a double-dip recession in 2011."
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Federated's Strategic Value Dividend strategy outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Select Dividend Index in the Third Quarter 2011. It continues to provide investors with a high current gross dividend yield of 5.1%. Be sure to read the commentary to learn more about their divided investing and why they think it's a good strategy for investors in this market environment.
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Linda Duessel, Equity Market Strategist at money manager Federated Investors examines this past week's events including speeches by President Obama, Ben Bernanke, and the European Central Bank's president Jean-Claude Trichet. Are the proposed ideas realistic? Are the intended results feasible? And have we heard similar ideas and rhetoric in the past?
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Money manager Wentworth Hauser & Violich is out with their 2011 summer review and outlook. "Virtually all economic indicators point toward continued economic expansion within the United States in the period ahead. Economic and employment growth will be slower than in past periods due to the headwinds created by government policies regarding regulation, mandates, rules, taxation and overall barriers to free market capitalism."
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