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Calamos Investments - April Market Review and Outlook

Posted by Gabriel F. Burczyk on 4/17/13 2:55 pm

Discussing many timely topics, money manager Calamos Investments’ latest commentary predicts a market correction in the near future, asks when QE3 will end and reviews the potential of emerging market economies. "Against the backdrop of accommodative monetary policy, the global economy continued its recovery, although at a decidedly uneven pace. Equity markets advanced on the whole (Figure 1). Once again, the news was most encouraging in the United States. Fourth quarter U.S. corporate earnings came in strong, with more than two-thirds of firms beating expectations. Sequestration worries contributed to volatility, particularly in the early portion of the quarter, but passage of a new continuing resolution prevented a shutdown in Washington. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 Index reached new heights, surpassing levels not seen since October 2007."

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First Quarter 2013 Recap - Nuveen Asset Management

Posted by Michael O'Connor on 4/2/13 10:49 am

Bob Doll, Chief Equity Strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, debates whether growth expectations or continued liquidity is acting as the main driver of capital markets. "This past month marked the fourth anniversary of the global equity market bottom on March 9, 2009. U.S. stocks have clawed back all of the losses from the Great Recession and are near historical highs. Most other major markets are still well below their 2007 peaks, but have rebounded sharply since last June and look increasingly resilient. However, there is tremendous anxiety about the economic outlook, and many investors fear equities and other risk assets are floating on a sea of liquidity rather than solid fundamentals. We are more constructive and maintain a pro-growth investment stance."

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First Quarter Closes with Double-Digit Gains, What’s Next? - Navellier

Posted by Gabriel F. Burczyk on 4/1/13 10:25 am

Louis Navellier reviews the first quarter of 2013 and gives his thoughts on Cyprus, the continued quantitative easing by the Fed and his GDP prediction for the second quarter of 2013. "The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high on Thursday and finished the first quarter on a strong note, pushing the S&P into double-digit gains (barely), at +10.03%. The Dow Jones industrials gained a lofty 11.25% and NASDAQ rose 8.21% in the opening quarter of 2013. Today, we enter April, typically the best month of the year in recent market history. We believe we should see further gains, but after pension funding concludes in mid-April and earnings announcement season begins, I expect the market to be more selective."

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China Ascending: The New Economic Superpower - Wentworth Hauser

Posted by Michael O'Connor on 1/24/13 3:43 pm

Wentworth Hauser’s Richard Hirayama provides his views on the ascent of China and its effect on its trading partners around the world. "International and global equity markets advanced during the fourth quarter to conclude a strong 2012. Despite strong market performance, a slowing global economy during the year was an impediment to economically sensitive investments such as WHV’s energy and materials equities. However, prospects for improved global economic growth may have emerged in December. The fiscal cliff issue in the United States, the world’s largest economy, was resolved at the end of the year, which may boost consumer and business confidence and enhance economic growth prospects. In addition, natural resource-dependent China, the second largest economy in the world, appears to have started a moderate economic recovery as the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index advanced 15% in December. In a globalized capitalistic world, if the two largest economies have improved growth prospects, then their trading partners, which include the European Union, Japan and emerging market countries ex-China, should also benefit economically."

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2013 Review and Outlook - WHV Investment Management

Posted by Gabriel F. Burczyk on 1/18/13 3:19 pm

Wentworth Hauser’s latest investment commentary reviews the recent tax legislation, the modestly growing economy, sub-par employment rate, housing market recovery and China. "As we enter 2013, the United States is faced with both short- and long-term challenges. Over the short term the U.S. must address the revenue shortfall and spending excesses that result in budget deficits. The employment problem of the past five years is due to below average GDP growth of the current economic recovery. The second challenge is long-term reform to the nation’s entitlement programs of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and some fifty other welfare benefits."

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Looking Towards 2013 - Roosevelt Investments

Posted by Michael O'Connor on 12/17/12 2:00 pm

Roosevelt Investments’ December investment commentary reviews the impact of Hurricane Sandy and the fiscal cliff, and looks forward to 2013. "The stock market started off on a weaker tone in November, with concerns ranging from the impact of Hurricane Sandy on economic growth to post-election jitters combined with anxiety about the fiscal cliff. Subsequently however, the Fed released minutes from its October meeting which confirmed the hopes of some investors that its quantitative easing program will continue or even strengthen in 2013. In addition, housing data continued to be strong and third quarter GDP was revised higher to 2.7%, from an earlier 2% estimate."

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November Investment Commentary - Roosevelt Investments

Posted by Michael O'Connor on 11/26/12 3:37 pm

Roosevelt Investments' November commentary reviews the latest corporate earnings, investor sentiment, and outlooks for the fiscal cliff and tax changes in 2013. "After a strong September, the stock market ceded ground in October and ended the month about 2% lower than where it began. Third quarter earnings were disappointing as many companies struggled to achieve more than modest revenue growth. Guidance for future growth was lackluster given macroeconomic pressures from Europe and China in addition to fiscal cliff-related uncertainty. Housing data continues to point toward recovery, while the employment picture remains mixed."

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Third Quarter Emerging Markets Equity Commentary – Wentworth Hauser

Posted by Gabriel F. Burczyk on 11/9/12 10:36 am

Wentworth Hauser’s latest emerging markets investment commentary looks at the situation in several different countries and how global central bank actions affect them. "The world stock markets continue to be strongly influenced by a plethora of macro factors. While past negative news gave ample reason for investors to worry, positive actions kindled an equivalently strong rebound in world markets. The world's central banks continue to fuel strong stock market advances as conventional and non-conventional measures are being used in an attempt to offset a distinct lack of credible fiscal policy initiatives in developed countries. The Federal Reserve Bank initiated the latest quantitative easing program (QE3) involving the large scale acquisition of mortgage-backed securities in an attempt to somewhat offset the anticipated recessionary effects caused by the previously discussed advent of the "Fiscal Cliff". Incidentally, the US economy might be able to better handle the onset of this event as residential real estate appears to have bottomed and employment statistics are showing signs of improvement."

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Will Economic Stagnation Lead To Stagflation? - Hirayama Investments

Posted by Seton McAndrews on 11/7/12 10:29 am

Richard Hirayama, portfolio manager of the Wentworth Hauser International Equity strategy, examines central bank actions and what it could lead to. "The world has benefited substantially from three decades of declining inflation which reduced costs and stimulated economic growth. However, synchronized credit creation and money printing by the major central banks may ignite inflationary forces similar to the 1960’s and 1970’s. Stagnant subpar global economic growth of 3-3.5% in an environment of rising inflation expectations could breed stagflation. The central banks would almost certainly not permit inflation to rise above 4-5% for a sustained period of time but an inflation advance from 2% to 3% is a 50% increase which could motivate investors to seek out inflation-hedging assets such as equities and WHV’s energy and materials investments for potential protection against purchasing power degradation and paper money devaluation."

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Earnings Resiliency Creates Attractive Opportunities - Fred Alger

Posted by Gabriel F. Burczyk on 10/19/12 10:13 am

Fred Alger's Fall 2012 investment commentary focuses on corporate earnings and where they see opportunities moving forward. "We are encouraged to see companies either start paying dividends or increase dividends. Many companies are also buying back stock at an aggressive rate. The result, we believe, is to put a fundamental floor on the U.S. stock market. We are highly encouraged by what we’ve seen in corporate fundamentals and market reactions. Regulators across the world are raising the rhetoric about slowing economic growth and in many parts of the world, such as China and Brazil, policies are clearly moving to a stimulative stance. In other parts, like Europe, it’s mostly rhetoric that is supporting equity market gains, but we increasingly think stimulus from policymakers is likely. We maintain that it is not time to sell equities as some suggest. Rather, it is time to buy if you have a time horizon that goes beyond a year, and buy more on market dips if you already own equities. During this back to school season, it is time to embrace equities and the rigorous work of conducting in-depth, fundamental research that we believe can find attractive opportunities. And it’s time to diversify away from a likely losing asset class that is offering historically low yields: U.S. Treasuries."

Click here to read Fred Alger’s Full Commentary.

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