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Similar to the Money Manager Picks for 2009, WrapManager has selected 10 money managers who we believe are well positioned for 2010. Based on what we feel are the four loudest and popular year-end economic themes of 2009, these managers have been selected based on their individual objectives and disciplines that we feel may be appropriate for 2010.
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Neuberger Berman believes it is a good time to be an equity investor. The markets have rallied off their March lows with the help of stabilization in the real estate, credit, and labor markets. Equity valuations have increased upwards, but Neuberger thinks they are reasonable when looking at the projections for next year. And the recent gains should continue their upward trends as long as the economic fundamentals, such as, the labor market, credit market normalization, manufacturing trends, and leading indicators, keep improving.
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The transition from recession to recovery is underway, and Fayez Sarofim believes we are still in the early stages. The outlook is positive but there are still potential setbacks that could occur along the way. Improving capital market conditions, low interest rates, low inflation, and upward revisions on future earnings forecasts are all potential factors which could carry the market forward. But watch out for the fading stimulus spending, and the withdrawal of liquidity by the FED, as these could heighten the concern about future growth.
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At the beginning of 2009 WrapManager selected and published five money managers, with philosophies and styles we thought would be attractive to investors looking for strategies that ranged from aggressive growth to equity income (dividends). Through the third quarter 2009 the five managers have had an excellent performance run. Visit WrapManager.com, or click on the link below, to learn more about these managers and the services we offer.
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In their latest commentary, money manager Wentworth, Hauser, and Violich reflect upon what has happened in the markets and the economy over the past year, and what we can expect going forward. Wentworth believes that the U.S. and global economies are recovering, and that there is continued evidence which supports this. Leading economic indicators, low interest rates, a steep yield curve, global monetary and fiscal stimulus, an improving domestic housing market, and the consumer sentiment index are all contributing factors. Despite these positive signs, there are a number of things that could hamper the strength of the recovery. Massive government intervention has done its part to help stabilize, but in the long run what will be the implications of this? Taming inflation, a proper exit strategy for the Fed to unwind its balance sheet, and the role of the U.S. consumer, are the key components to watch out for.
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In their latest money manager commentary, Clover Capital discusses the major economic themes of the market in every decade over the last thirty years. The 1970’s were defined by stagflation and high energy and commodity prices. The 1980’s saw the rise of Japan, junk bonds, the fall of the Soviet Union, and an economy that returned to normalcy. In the 1990’s the tech bubble and growth investing took center stage, while the “old economy”, value investing, and fundamentals were tossed aside. The beginning of the new century so far has been dominated by residential real estate speculation and the fear and panic that ensued after that burst. Where do we head from here? Although looking at the past trends can help shed light on the future, the one thing that will continue will be the patterns of human behavior that shape them.
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In their latest money manager commentary, Churchill Management discusses investor sentiment and how the role of psychology shapes the cyclical nature of the stock market. From irrational exuberance to irrational despair, tops and bottoms are put into the market. Where is the market now? Churchill believes we are currently in the process of forming a cyclical bull market within a longer term secular bear. How long it lasts will depend on economic policies and indicators currently being formed.
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The past year has been one of the most volatile periods in history for the capital markets with investor panic, a credit market freeze, and a sharp downturn in economic growth. Aggressive interventions by the federal government appear to have done their job of avoiding an economic disaster. The result has been a sharp market rally since March, and a narrowing of spreads between Treasuries and other fixed income securities. The economic environment is still uncertain, and money managers, and private asset management firms, will need to return to their basics to focus on what they can control – investment discipline, fundamental research, and diversification.
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When I started out in the investment world years ago, people were most interested in getting a return on their money. Today, it seems, investors are just happy to get their money returned.
Money managers are under great pressure these days to invest money prudently. And they should be. But the responsibility to ensure that you’ve entrusted your money with a trustworthy money manager…well, that responsibility rests with you, the investor.
At WrapManager, we’ve put a lot of safeguards in place to ensure that your money is protected from fraud and has every opportunity to take advantage of its unique investment potential. But to better shoulder your responsibility as an investor, I offer the following checklists to help you identify the red flags of potential investment fraud.
Money Manager, Financial Planner or Advisor Checklist
- Rely on referrals from people you know. Do NOT rely on referrals given to you by a potential money manager, financial planner or advisor, because they will not refer you to anyone who has anything bad to say about him.
- If a financial advisor has a sketchy past, you can find out about it online. Search www.sec.gov and www.finra.org/brokercheck for information about a potential advisor (and ensure it’s not someone with the same name.)
- Request the financial advisor’s disclosure brochure and read it carefully.
- Your financial advisor should be willing to answer all of your questions and provide information regarding his experience, credentials, and investment recommendations.
- Research all investment products and recommendations: You should be confident in your investments, not just your financial advisor.
- Agree to no more than specific, limited power of attorney, never allow assets to be moved, and never allow money to be wired or checks written to any individual or firm different from the name on your account except with your written approval.
Custodial Account Checklist
- Make sure your money is held in a custodial account by a financial institution or National Chartered Trust Company such as First Clearing, Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, or Charles Schwab. Make sure it’s a real custodial firm, not just a company with a financial-sounding name.
- Your statements should come from this independent custodial firm, not your money manager, financial planner or advisor. You should receive statements no less than quarterly.
- Ensure your account is covered by SIPC protection, as well as independent custodial insurance for amounts that exceed this coverage.
- You should have online access to your custodial account and request copies of signed documents and the firm’s privacy policy.
- Question any investment results that appear too high or too low.
Remember the movie “The Sting” with Robert Redford and Paul Newman? These conmen successfully swindled their mark by gaining his confidence. Consider the insights of Redford’s character (Johnny Hooker):
Doyle Lonnegan: “Your boss is quite a card player, Mr. Kelly; how does he do it?”
Johnny Hooker: “He cheats.”
That means if the investment results appear too good to be true, they probably are. Be alert and aware. Trust, but verify. It’s your money and nobody will watch over it better than you.
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Blogs found at this site have been created or supported by WrapManager. The information provided in a blog post prepared by WrapManager or an associated person of WrapManager is generally limited to financial and economic issues, but may include a discussion of general interest items. The views and opinions expressed on this blog are purely the blog authors, and not necessarily those of WrapManager, Inc. Certain blog posts include information pertaining to WrapManager’s investment advisory services and the products and services of unaffiliated money managers. Such information is provided for information purposes only. Accordingly, information provided in a blog should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as a solicitation to effect or attempt to effect transactions in securities or the rendering of personalized investment advice. Any subsequent, direct communication by WrapManager with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative of WrapManager. Moreover, no client or prospective client should assume content contained on the website serves as a substitute for personalized advice from WrapManager. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any investment, portfolio or money manager referred to within the blog will be suitable for your individual situation and risk tolerance or will be profitable. WrapManager recommends that you retain a financial professional to provide you with specific guidance regarding your financial situation before investing. Investment in equity strategies involves substantial risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested.
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The associated persons of WrapManager are also securities agents with Prospera Financial Services, Inc., a registered broker/dealer, member FINRA/SIPC. Securities offered through Prospera Financial Services are cleared through First Clearing, LLC which is affiliated with Wells Fargo Corporation. WrapManager is not a related company of Prospera Financial Services, First Clearing or the Wells Fargo Corporation.
