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At the beginning of 2009 WrapManager selected and published five money managers, with philosophies and styles we thought would be attractive to investors looking for strategies that ranged from aggressive growth to equity income (dividends). Through the third quarter 2009 the five managers have had an excellent performance run. Visit WrapManager.com, or click on the link below, to learn more about these managers and the services we offer.
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Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve district banks identified commercial real estate as the weakest part of the economy, while most saw "stabilization or modest improvements" in areas including housing and manufacturing.
All 12 district banks reported a weak or declining commercial real estate market, the central bank said today in its Beige Book business survey, published two weeks before officials meet to set monetary policy. The banks observed "little or no" price pressures, while demand for bank loans was "weak or declining" and many districts reported a "further erosion of credit quality."
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BlackRock believes that the recession has ended and the global economy has entered a recovery phase. What this recovery will look like, and how fast it will play out, remains to be seen though. The stock market has posted strong gains during the past six months mainly due to the world not entering a depression and equities being undervalued. Sustaining the rally and the gains will require an underpinning of strong fundamentals and earnings. The period going forward should still be equity friendly. Slow growth, low inflation, and a continued stance on easy monetary policy from the Fed should all help.
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Money Manager Neuberger Berman offers their state of the market address following the closing of the third quarter. The psychology of investors as well as massive government intervention, have helped steer the markets and the economy on the road to recovery. The upward movement in equities has also been supported by improving fundamentals. Manufacturing has started to expand, the labor market is stabilizing, credit markets are starting to normalize, and leading economic indicators continue to improve. Despite the positive trends, Neuberger does not see a strong economic boom in the near future. The consumer is still deleveraging, and unemployment should continue to remain high. But overall they believe it is still a good time to be an equity investor.
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In their latest commentary, money manager Wentworth, Hauser, and Violich reflect upon what has happened in the markets and the economy over the past year, and what we can expect going forward. Wentworth believes that the U.S. and global economies are recovering, and that there is continued evidence which supports this. Leading economic indicators, low interest rates, a steep yield curve, global monetary and fiscal stimulus, an improving domestic housing market, and the consumer sentiment index are all contributing factors. Despite these positive signs, there are a number of things that could hamper the strength of the recovery. Massive government intervention has done its part to help stabilize, but in the long run what will be the implications of this? Taming inflation, a proper exit strategy for the Fed to unwind its balance sheet, and the role of the U.S. consumer, are the key components to watch out for.
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In their latest money manager commentary, Clover Capital discusses the major economic themes of the market in every decade over the last thirty years. The 1970’s were defined by stagflation and high energy and commodity prices. The 1980’s saw the rise of Japan, junk bonds, the fall of the Soviet Union, and an economy that returned to normalcy. In the 1990’s the tech bubble and growth investing took center stage, while the “old economy”, value investing, and fundamentals were tossed aside. The beginning of the new century so far has been dominated by residential real estate speculation and the fear and panic that ensued after that burst. Where do we head from here? Although looking at the past trends can help shed light on the future, the one thing that will continue will be the patterns of human behavior that shape them.
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Roosevelt continues to maintain their positive outlook on the stock market. Investor sentiment and recent economic data continue to support this view. The continued narrowing of credit spreads and the pick-up in M&A activity are both bullish developments that could continue to provide fuel. Although the employment data that came out in early October was a disappointment, the continued weakness in the labor market could restrain the Fed from raising interest rates in the near term. Although there are currently no present signals that could change their positive view, there a few risks on the horizon that may be a cause for concern – the likelihood of increased taxes and exit strategies from the Fed and other central banks.
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Americans holding $3.5 trillion in cash are giving money managers increasing confidence that the stock market rally under President Barack Obama will continue through the end of the year.
Even after reducing money-market accounts by 11 percent this year, investors have cash equal to 73 percent of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies’ net assets, according to data compiled by the Investment Company Institute and Bloomberg. At the peak of the bull market in 2007, the measure of buying power was 62 percent.
Source: Bloomberg, September 28, 2009
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John Calamos Sr., whose mutual fund beat 99 percent of rivals over the past decade, said technology and energy exploration stocks that benefit from global economic growth will offer better returns than the banks that have driven this year’s market rebound.
“We want to be in areas where we feel a bit of wind at our back,” Calamos, an Air Force combat pilot during the Vietnam War who started his company in 1977, said in a telephone interview from Naperville, Illinois. Financials “are being driven by hope more than economic fundamentals.”
Source: Bloomberg
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In their latest money manager commentary, Churchill Management discusses investor sentiment and how the role of psychology shapes the cyclical nature of the stock market. From irrational exuberance to irrational despair, tops and bottoms are put into the market. Where is the market now? Churchill believes we are currently in the process of forming a cyclical bull market within a longer term secular bear. How long it lasts will depend on economic policies and indicators currently being formed.
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