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In last week's report, we said it was probably a good time for short-term investors to take some profits. It did not take long before equity markets started to weaken as investors began to look at problems rather than opportunities. At this point, the equity market may consolidate or pull back further before resuming the longer-term moderate advance that we expect.
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 11/9/10 8:40 am
Several U.S. stock market indexes advanced to new yearly highs last week, following the election and announcement that the Fed would provide additional stimulus to the economy. The rally may be encouraging some investors to add to positions, but this may be a good time for short-term investors to take profits instead.
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The recent report on third quarter GDP showed a healthy amount of investment spending for capital goods. In fact, over the last year, capital spending has carried most of the load for economic expansion, such as it is. During the Great Recession, corporations managed to avoid the long run damage that was inflicted on consumers. Companies reacted with lightning speed, cutting payrolls, inventories and capital spending. Once inventories were slashed enough and the economy bumped off the bottom, capital spending resumed.
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Although the third quarter was a bumpy ride, increasing clarity in the financial markets helped reinforce many of the Neuberger Berman Asset Allocation Committee's long-held positions on core asset classes, and refine its positions on a number of peripheral asset classes. Overall, the Committee is maintaining its positive outlook for U.S. equities based on improving macroeconomic fundamentals and investor confidence. With debt markets stabilizing in developed countries and high GDP growth forecasts for emerging markets, the Committee is upgrading its international equities outlook.
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This week the Federal Reserve is expected to announce another round of monetary stimulus called quantitative easing. Policymakers need to be careful and not pump too much money into the financial system or they could lose the credibility they earned restraining inflation over many years.
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At Alger we expect two broad developments to occur: market volatility will continue in the foreseeable future and equity prices, over the longer term, will advance. Uncertainty over U.S. government policies, such as the timing and the extent of withdrawing of financial stimulus programs and the need to manage growing national budget deficits, will drive market volatility.
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Although US consumer spending is growing at a modest pace, underlying trends are uneven. Spending on durable goods is very strong, while services remain weak. In our view, this unusual pattern may reflect a growing spending gap among income groups that can only be addressed with a fiscal policy solution.
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The recovery from the 2008-2009 recession has been slow. Consequently, many investors are worried that the U.S. economy will fall back into another recession. We, however, continue to believe that the probability of a second recession or double dip in the economy is only about 20%. That's because the recovery in corporate profits is very broad, making the economy more resilient than the headline economic news suggests.
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The impact of GDP growth on stock market performance varies with each country and is influenced by other factors. We believe that earnings growth can be a better indicator of stock market performance than GDP growth. We also believe the size of the domestic economy, stock market structure, and valuations affect stock market returns.
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Posted by Valerie De Vol on 10/22/10 9:16 am
With additional monetary easing potentially on the horizon, a more likely scenario is an economy that continues to "muddle through" with mediocre rates of growth. Still, the risks to this more optimistic outlook are real.
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