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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 10/19/10 2:36 pm
Forecasts for global economic growth have been pared somewhat as developed nations continue to struggle with weak economies, high unemployment, sovereign debt issues and weak housing markets. However, corporate profits are robust, inventories near desired levels and overall financial conditions have stabilized. The third quarter earnings estimate for the Standard & Poor's 500 companies is a year-over-year increase of 23.8 percent.
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 10/18/10 3:22 pm
This economic cycle is different from previous cycles in many ways. However, one of the biggest differences is the United States is not leading the global economic recovery; Asia is. Stronger growth overseas helps lift the American economy out of recession, but it also makes the U.S. recovery more dependent on the performance of other economies.
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BlackRock recommends maintaining an overweight toward equities (particularly higher-quality equities) and looking for income opportunities in credit sectors and municipal bonds in the current environment, as we provide asset allocation ideas and indicate where we believe investors can find the best opportunities in today's markets.
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 10/14/10 6:58 am
In this must read economic and market outlook, John and Nick Calamos discuss such topics as the playing field for US businesses, the uncharted waters the Fed finds itself in, realistic threats of currency wars and the real road to prosperity instead of wealth redistribution. Calamos reiterates that their "job is to capitalize on the reality of the markets and the economy - with heavy emphasis on risk management" and describe the opportunities they see moving forward.
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The gold market continues to move higher, hitting new record highs. However, gold prices, adjusted for inflation, are not at a record high. The last time inflation-adjusted gold prices were this high and rising was in the late 1970s when investors were pessimistic about economic prospects. There are many parallels between that period and today.
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 10/7/10 1:42 pm
Fixed income remains our asset class of choice. With the Fed signaling its willingness to unleash QEII and a faltering growth outlook, Treasuries, we suspect will remain underpinned at the current low yields. With sound credit fundamentals, credit should continue to provide attractive yield. That said, with yields now at historic lows and spreads not too far from historic averages, the outsized returns from fixed income will be increasingly limited going forward.
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The ongoing slowdown in the core rate of consumer prices has become an area of concern for policymakers. Although there is no doubt that inflation is low, we believe traditional consumer price measures are not the best gauge of inflation trends across the US economy.
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The U.S. equity market appears to be responding positively to recent opinion polls showing the Republicans are likely to gain many seats in the November elections. In addition, the markets seem to be moving higher in anticipation of further Federal Reserve stimulus. The big question is what could happen if investors are disappointed.
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In its statement, the Fed admitted that it believes inflation levels are too low, limiting its ability to promote stable prices. This was a significant statement, as until now the Fed was more focused on the slow pace of growth and high unemployment. These concerns obviously still remain, but by explicitly adding deflation risks to the list of problems, the Fed has made it clear that additional policy action is needed.
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ISI Group says the list of countries that would like to see their currencies weakened or remain undervalued for competitive reasons keeps growing. Japan, Switzerland, South Korea and others in East Asia are the latest to act. "We are in the midst of an international currency war," Brazil's finance minister said this week.
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