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Roosevelt Investments' latest Take Five commentary explains their macro economic analysis, equity markets perspective, and portfolio considerations. "Earlier this year, the European Central Bank (ECB) implemented a second refinancing program designed to shore up the region's financial sector. And while the ECB's actions may have taken risk off the table for the time being, investors are becoming more keenly aware that other challenges scheduled to arrive in early 2013 may present some headwinds for the markets."
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Roosevelt Investments' May commentary focuses on the rising risks coming out of Europe, despite favorable conditions in the U.S. "Although we believe current conditions remain favorable for equities in the U.S., we must also be cognizant of the global macroeconomic environment and its potential spillover effects on our capital markets. Furthermore, mixed domestic data over the past several weeks suggest that a pause in economic activity is underway. As a result, we gradually increased our risk tools during the month, and they currently stand at about 5% of the portfolio compared to a 2% weight at the end of the first quarter. We also trimmed our weighting in commodity-oriented companies but added to our Energy Arbitrage theme. While we are cautiously optimistic about the market going forward, should the recent softening in US economic data prove to be more than just a temporary slowdown, we are prepared to adjust our portfolios accordingly."
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Louis Navellier looks at oil prices and the elections in Greece and France, and what it all means for the markets. "The S&P 500 fell 1.1% last week. The initial drop was in response to election results in France and Greece, followed by the shocking news of a $2 billion trading loss at J.P. Morgan Chase*. The Dow (which includes JPM) suffered its worst week of the year, down 1.7%. However, the Russell 2000 only fell 0.2%. While the soap opera in Greece may continue to dominate the news, I still believe that rising earnings in an election year should lift most U.S. stocks higher during the rest of 2012."
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Lord Abbett's Milton Ezrati takes a look at the pros and cons of the increase in consumer spending over the last few quarters. "Since late 2011, measures of consumption show acceleration in virtually all categories, despite the recent rise in gasoline prices. In one sense, this is good news for the economy, as it will push the pace of overall growth and, ultimately, prompt more hiring, which in itself will reinforce spending growth. But-and there is always a but-this new trend raises longer-term concerns. More liberal consumer spending can only take the economy so far. Because heightened levels of consumption will limit households' abilities to make needed improvements in their finances, any effort to boost outlays too far too fast would only threaten pinched finances at a later date, followed by spending cutbacks, say in 2014 or 2015, with all the recessionary influence that would impose on the economy in general."
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Navellier describes how they think Sunday's French election of Hollande could affect Europe's debt crisis. "The victory of the Socialist Party in France may eventually result in a complete overhaul of debt bailout plans for euro-zone nations. Complicating matters further, 11 European countries are now officially in a recession. In America, the stock market was more worried about Friday's payroll report than Sunday's election."
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Louis Navellier's latest commentary reviews the recent US GDP figures and compares them to Europe's declining net GDP. "The market roared back strongly last week, especially the NASDAQ (+2.29%) and the Russell 2000 (+2.66%). With one trading day left in April, the market is flat for the month and up double-digits for the year. Now, we must contend with the nervous "sell in May and go away" crowd, which is inventing new reasons to panic. To me, these reasons look suspiciously old, like slow GDP growth and European credit woes, but quarterly earnings are still surprisingly strong and stocks respond most to earnings."
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Lord Abbett discusses the latest jobs report in-depth and what they expect with the economy moving forward. "The recent weak jobs report should serve as a wake-up call to economic reality. The disappointing news that payrolls in March expanded at only a meager 120,000 was far from momentous in itself. But it should, nonetheless, remind investors and businesspeople that earlier signs of strength overstated the fundamentals and that the recovery, though reasonably secure, was plodding all along, as it has for some time now and will likely continue to do."
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Eagle Asset Management is out with their first quarter 2012 commentary for their Small Cap Growth and Mid Cap Growth portfolio strategies. "We believe the European crisis interrupted a strong bull market that began off the March 2009 bottom. Retail investors stung by the 2008 financial crisis remain, for the most part, on the sidelines but we believe there are signs indicating asset flows into fixed income could reverse as interest rates trend higher. Some of that money likely will flow into the equity market. And as we move closer to the presidential election, government policy should continue to be pro-growth. The possible reversal of the restrictive healthcare law as well as the increasing probability both houses of Congress will go Republican should serve as positive catalysts."
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Louis Navellier's latest commentary focuses on US corporate earnings and new fears coming out of Europe. "Early last week, Spain seemed to signal which way the market would move. On Tuesday, stocks rose on a successful Spanish sovereign debt auction, but rising Spanish yields subsequently made investors nervous again by Thursday. Fears about the French election and a slowing U.S. recovery also spooked the market. But by week's end, the Dow was up 1.4% and the S&P 500 rose 0.6%. Why? While the news always seems scary, stocks usually respond more to positive earnings than to the news."
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Roosevelt Investors' first quarter commentary explains why they are optimistic towards the markets moving forward. However, three potential impediments to this optimism are discussed as well. "We believe the market may continue to move higher: 1) Valuations are compelling, 2) Labor market conditions remain favorable, 3) Consumers are feeling more confident and pent-up demand is helping to support economic activity. Several issues could present impediments for the stock market: 1) The U.S. economy faces what has been referred to as a "fiscal cliff", 2) Much of Europe remains mired in recession and energy prices remain high, 3) Many of the largest emerging economies appear to be experiencing slower economic growth."
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