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Baker Avenue believes the changing economic and market conditions as we move forward will best be suited for a strategic tactical approach to building wealth and managing risk. The basic buy-and-hold strategy using simplified diversification will not offer the benefits of the tactical approach. By identifying market sentiment, momentum, risk, and cyclical moves within secular trends, Baker thinks their approach is the optimal way to navigate the future.
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The U.S. and global economies continue to stabilize and gain strength and momentum. Low inflation, stabilization in the unemployment rate, a turnaround in the housing market, and the steadying of consumer spending, are all factors that Abner, Herrman and Brock believe will continue to help keep the trend going.
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Economic conditions for investors have continued to improve during the last quarter, and for all of 2009, and Lazard believes that the quarters and years ahead will provide new opportunities. As the economy further deleverages and adjusts, the companies that will deliver strong results will be the ones that provide excellent cash flows, balance sheet growth, and operational flexibility.
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Hillman continues to believe that the U.S. economy is favorably trending to a position of stability. Positive consumer activity, welcoming trends in unemployment, the direction of credit standards, as well as a pickup in demand for manufactured goods, are all factors that have helped. As long as these trends persist, Hillman believes that growth will continue to follow as well.
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In their latest money manager commentary, Federated Investors looks at the positive and negative data and indicators currently in the marketplace, and what lies ahead as we move closer to the year end. The question now has moved from, when will there be a recovery, to, how strong the recovery will be. Regional manufacturing increases, an expected strong holiday sales season, and the continued stance on monetary easing, should all help aid the recovery.
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BlackRock believes that the recession has ended and the global economy has entered a recovery phase. What this recovery will look like, and how fast it will play out, remains to be seen though. The stock market has posted strong gains during the past six months mainly due to the world not entering a depression and equities being undervalued. Sustaining the rally and the gains will require an underpinning of strong fundamentals and earnings. The period going forward should still be equity friendly. Slow growth, low inflation, and a continued stance on easy monetary policy from the Fed should all help.
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Fred Alger incorporates into their investment thinking the reality that the market is driven by an even mix of fundamentals and psychology. Psychology can best be described as the battle between fear and greed. The markets have experienced two cycles of fear (mid 2007, end of 2008/beginning of 2009) that have already had a major impact on the money management industry. But since the lows in March, fear has been residing, and there has been a significant rally. But before fundamentals and greed can take charge and control the future outcome of the markets, they believe greed will most likely rear its head one final time.
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