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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 2/16/11 8:49 am
Avatar Associates takes a look at what they believe is the economic event of our lifetime - "the mass movement from agricultural to industry on the part of close to a billion people. Occasionally, things get pretty bumpy in the developing world. We think that is the nature of early development. The U.S. was that kind of country from the 1880s until the 1950s. Our growth rate, on average, was very high, but there were a lot of booms and busts around that high trend."
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Money manager BlackRock reviews the municipal bond market and gives their outlook and strategy for the asset class. "January is traditionally a period of seasonal strength for the municipal markets. However, negative headlines and mutual fund outflows continued to move municipal rates higher (and prices lower). Fundamental challenges will continue to be met with negative press, prompting us to adopt a neutral view for the market. That said, we would remind investors that setbacks can be healthy in that they allow the markets to re-price and can present an attractive value for long-term investors willing and able to participate and weather interim volatility."
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Wells Fargo's weekly commentary focuses on the popular topic of inflation and why they think it's probably not something to worry about at the moment. "Many investors are worried that inflation could increase because the Federal Reserve is pumping a lot of money into the economy. However, we continue to believe that the window of opportunity is still open for the Fed to add liquidity without creating high inflation. Inflation remains low despite the Fed's easy money policy because high unemployment and increasing productivity keep labor costs and inflation contained."
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Money manager Wentworth Hauser shares their view of the current economic environment and their outlook for 2011. They find that "the United States economy appears to be gaining some momentum as we enter 2011. The global economy also appears to be experiencing solid growth. Resolution of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe will likely determine the course of global economic activity and the financial markets throughout 2011 and into 2012."
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Wells Fargo is out with their weekly commentary - "Just when investors were feeling better about the equity markets, the turmoil in Egypt reminds us that unexpected events can happen at any time. Unfortunately, the developments in Egypt came at a time when the stock market was vulnerable to a time out, causing the first big daily drop in equity prices in more than two months."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 1/28/11 12:39 pm
Estabrook Capital Management anticipates that 2011 will provide attractive returns in U.S. equity markets in the low double digit percentages. This conclusion is remarkably similar to the outlook their firm held one year ago at this time, an outlook that was fulfilled in 2010. However, the combination of positive factors and investment risks appears materially different than the combination present a year ago.
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Wells Fargo notes that "when the economy is in recession, most indicators are weak. When the economy is booming, most indicators are strong. When the economy is growing at a moderate rate, as it is now, the indicators are mixed, and the economy seems to swing back and forth between rapid growth and slow growth. Recent economic data and stock market activity suggest the economy may be cooling off, and investors are starting to turn more cautious."
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Money manager Neuberger Berman favors an overweight of equities over bonds, with a balance of dividend-producing and cyclical stocks, as well as some exposure to higher risk/return profile investments including high yield and emerging market stocks. In a generally muted economic environment that carries a variety of risks, they believe that security selection will be highly important to investment performance across asset classes in the year ahead.
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Federated Investors comments on "the somewhat numbing subject of municipal credit quality that has suddenly become a hot topic in cocktail conversations." The money manager thinks "this must be what happens when the highly rated "60 Minutes" features a story with a veteran banking analyst suggesting the muni market could be the next subprime fiasco, with as many as "50 to 100 sizeable defaults" among local governments and issuers amounting to "hundreds of billions of dollars." The only problem: such reports may be conversation starters, but they are unduly alarmist and quite simply, extreme."
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Wells Fargo does not expect the U.S. government to default on its debt. The Congress has always raised the debt ceiling when necessary, and they expect that will happen again this spring. However, both parties are likely to warn of dire consequences if the debt ceiling is not increased or if government spending is not restrained. These arguments could reduce investors' willingness to take risk and could weigh on both the government bond market and the stock market as the debate heats up.
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