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Neuberger recaps 2010 from a global and domestic point of view. Perhaps more importantly, where is the market and economy going from here? What better way than to hear the thoughts of Neuberger portfolio managers from four different investing arenas: US equities, global fixed income, global equities, and currencies. Get their perspective on the same issues from all four angels.
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Our Market Sentiment indicator turned negative today, 13 months since our Market Sentiment indicator turned positive in April 2009. As such, we will move from our current cash position of 50% to 100% by the end of the trading day in the All Cap Core strategy. Over the past few days we have been aggressively raising cash as Market Sentiment began to deteriorate causing us to take a proactive defensive position.
The Market Sentiment indicator is not a predictor of markets and it does not capture the absolute tops and bottoms of the market - it is not an oracle. However, what we know with 30 years of Market Sentiment data is that once the indicator turns negative, fundamental investing becomes less important as emotions start to affect investment decisions. In negative Market Sentiments, market volatility increases and the market becomes intolerant of risk. In these emotional, high risk markets, there is a much higher possibility of a significant loss of capital.
How long the market will remain negative remains to be seen. If the US economy is able to persist in its recovery phase despite the problems in the Euro zone, the time the market will spend in negative territory may be short in duration. However, the best strategy now is to play defense by moving to cash and let the market works its way out of this condition. These are the times that demonstrate the importance of a tactical strategy to protect capital in declining markets.
Best Regards,
Simon
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In the months since our last Investment Quarterly, we have maintained our view that investors who may have shifted their portfolio weightings to safer assets should consider reevaluating their portfolio allocations based on their long-term investment goals and objectives. Yes, some market concerns have emerged earlier than anticipated, and were reflected by a modest correction in late January and early February - something that many forecasters were anticipating for the second half of 2010. However, fundamentals have generally been improving, with companies showing gains in revenues and profits.
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Capital markets have come a long way from March 2009, and the global economic recovery seems increasingly sustainable - although risks remain. It was a fitful quarter for global equity markets, but they still managed to produce meaningful progress. Stocks rose tentatively in early January, but concerns about mounting fiscal debt caused them to give back their year-to-date gains - and then some. By mid-February, investors had refocused on good news and equity markets righted themselves with a rally that last through quarter end.
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Posted by John Gibbs on 4/29/10 8:41 am
The recovery that began in the summer of 2009 remains in place and will continue throughout 2010. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of the inflection points in the business cycles, determined that the recession in the United States began in December 2007. The NBER has yet to announce when it ended. However, most economists postulate that it ended in June or July of 2009 when many of the indicators of economic activity turned up. If this is confirmed by the NBER, the recession will have lasted 19 months, the longest and most severe downturn in business activity since the 1930s.
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As the Credit Crisis unfolded over the past two years, banks made headlines by reporting unprecedented losses. Some of the most prominent financial institutions collapsed or teetered on the brink of insolvency, prompting the government to mount a massive, unparalleled rescue program. While the specifics of this last crisis may vary from those that came before it, we believe that the cyclicality of the banking industry continues to be relevant. As with every cycle, the losses are cleared away to make room for improvement. But the potential for this cyclical improvement, in our view, is currently being underestimated by investors.
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Now that spring has arrived, kids are excited about visiting their local amusement parks to ride their favorite roller coasters. With the recent gains in the stock market, investors also seem to be queuing up again for the roller coaster ride in stocks. US markets continued their climb in the first quarter of 2010 with the S&P 500 Index gaining 5.39% on the quarter, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 4.81%, and the Russell 2000 small cap index gaining an impressive 8.85%.
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Exports are poised to play a much bigger role than ever before in fueling the US economic recovery. With a wide range of US manufacturing industries generating more revenue and profit from overseas markets, we expect exports to imprint lasting changes on the US economic and business landscape.
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Alliance believes that the world economy continues to rebound from the widespread recession, and that global growth in 2010 should approach 3.5 percent. They see government stimulus packages continuing to bolster the rebound, consumption continuing to improve, the trend in global manufacturing is positive, and the weak dollar is doing its job and rebalancing capital flows and trade.
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Fred Alger has a positive outlook on the markets and the economy as we head into 2010. They believe corporate earnings should deliver solid results, and the growth in GDP and other economic indicators should continue to show improvements. Fred Alger believes that even as countries begin to pull back on their stimulus measures, the overall amount in the global system will continue to stimulate corporate and consumer activity.
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