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Stephen Auth, Chief Investment Officer for equities at money manager Federated Investors reviews three main global focal points: Japan's recovery and outlook from the nuclear threat, the continued violence in the Middle East, and the increasing US economic recovery. Given their views on these events, Federated reiterates its year-end target of 1450 on the S&P500.
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"The events of the last several weeks serve as a reminder about how quickly potential risks can turn into downside reality. The regime changes in Tunisia and Egypt, other uprisings in the region, the escalation of the civil war in Libya and the potential for nuclear catastrophe in Japan have all worked together to drive investor unease higher and have caused significantly higher levels of market volatility. Predicting the exact outcome of any, let alone all, of these events is, of course, impossible, but based on the information we have today, our assessment is that none of these risks have yet derailed or will derail, the global economic recovery or the longer-term bull market in equities."
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“The recent spike in energy prices caused by the turmoil in the Middle East and now the great earthquake in Japan remind investors that we live in an uncertain world. Many events can be anticipated but some others are completely unpredictable. Obviously, there is never a good time for a disaster to occur. However, the impact of a negative shock on the economy depends on the state of the economy when the event occurs. The best investors can do is accept that taking risk is an integral part of investing and determine how much risk they are willing to take. This week’s report examines why many investors may be more risk averse now but also why we believe this is a better time to be taking risk than three years ago.”
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Wells Fargo's weekly commentary takes a look at the US budget deficit and explains why there is still time to fix the growing problem. "Many investors worry that our country is headed for another financial crisis because of its growing national debt. We agree that the United States has a serious debt problem that needs to be addressed soon. However, a crisis can still be avoided. This report looks at what is being done to control the deficit this year and what must be done in the future to prevent the current situation from getting worse."
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Money manager Federated Investors is out with a great market memo discussing their case for oil and how the recent events in the Middle East could affect pricing and the economy. Long-term they are bullish on oil and use historical events to form part of their conviction. Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Nigeria are discussed and ultimately arrive at the conclusion that the situation is likely overblown with regard to oil prices. For those looking for details about the situation and each country, this is a great read.
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 3/4/11 9:17 am
The latest commentary from money manager Janus takes a look at different possible outcomes in Egypt and what the effects could be on the region and emerging markets in general. "While the resignation of Hosni Mubarak releases some pressure in Egypt, some of the longer term regional and global investment concerns remain. Our most likely scenario was that Egypt would see an army-backed transition to a democracy, and Mubarak’s resignation brings the country in that direction. The unrest highlighted some surprising investment positives in the region but also increased our concerns about some threats to emerging markets."
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Northern Trust's Chief Economist Paul Kasriel explains why a cut in government spending in itself may not trigger credit creation and a broad increase in spending by nongovernmental entities. He also examines the effect on real economic growth from the perspective of energy price increases.
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Wells Fargo's weekly commentary explains why they think higher oil prices will not push the US back into recession and details a few indicators they monitor. "Many investors are probably wondering whether the recent increase in oil prices will push the economy back into recession. We do not think so. This report will examine why the economy is likely to slow down in response to the increase in oil prices, not fall into recession again."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 2/22/11 2:28 pm
"In early November, the Federal Reserve started to add additional liquidity to the financial system through its second round of quantitative easing (QEII). This program is scheduled to last until June of this year. We are now about half way through QEII, and many investors are probably wondering whether the Fed will do a third round of quantitative easing (QEIII) when it is finished with its current stimulus. Our work suggests the Fed does not need to do more, but it is still too early to say that the Fed won't."
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Money manager Janus believes that the "prospects for the recovery continue to be stronger than consensus estimates, boosting our outlook for the economy and risk assets. We think U.S. equities remain undervalued and will outperform in 2011. Despite the rise in yields, bonds remain attractive when evaluated on real returns. Key themes to watch include a recovery in housing, sovereign funding issues in Europe and inflation expectations in the U.S. and emerging markets."
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