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In their latest money manager commentary, Federated Investors looks at the positive and negative data and indicators currently in the marketplace, and what lies ahead as we move closer to the year end. The question now has moved from, when will there be a recovery, to, how strong the recovery will be. Regional manufacturing increases, an expected strong holiday sales season, and the continued stance on monetary easing, should all help aid the recovery.
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Money Manager Neuberger Berman offers their state of the market address following the closing of the third quarter. The psychology of investors as well as massive government intervention, have helped steer the markets and the economy on the road to recovery. The upward movement in equities has also been supported by improving fundamentals. Manufacturing has started to expand, the labor market is stabilizing, credit markets are starting to normalize, and leading economic indicators continue to improve. Despite the positive trends, Neuberger does not see a strong economic boom in the near future. The consumer is still deleveraging, and unemployment should continue to remain high. But overall they believe it is still a good time to be an equity investor.
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In their latest money manager commentary, Clover Capital discusses the major economic themes of the market in every decade over the last thirty years. The 1970’s were defined by stagflation and high energy and commodity prices. The 1980’s saw the rise of Japan, junk bonds, the fall of the Soviet Union, and an economy that returned to normalcy. In the 1990’s the tech bubble and growth investing took center stage, while the “old economy”, value investing, and fundamentals were tossed aside. The beginning of the new century so far has been dominated by residential real estate speculation and the fear and panic that ensued after that burst. Where do we head from here? Although looking at the past trends can help shed light on the future, the one thing that will continue will be the patterns of human behavior that shape them.
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In the latest money manager commentary from Federated, equity market strategist Linda Duessel discusses and dissects the current economic data that is out there in the marketplace. There is positive news and indicators, but also some negative signs to watch out for. Is a pullback inevitable? What are the implications and outlook for the markets going forward?
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In Eagle’s latest money manager commentary, they explain what has been happening in the Small/Mid cap sector of the stock market since the March market lows. Low quality stocks have been out-performing high quality stocks. The stocks with the highest gains have been those with the lowest return on equity. These low quality stocks are not even expected to produce any earnings over the 12 months. Historically this has not been able to hold – since 1991 stocks that have produced earnings out-perform those that do not by about 300%.
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Has the stock market come too far too fast during the past six months? At these current levels and valuations, are equities overbought and expensive? Money management firm BlackRock investigates these issues and also dives into the latest economic news that has helped shape the market over the past few weeks.
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In this money manager commentary, Neuberger Berman assesses the recent market events, and notes the potential long-term challenges that the economy faces as it moves further away from an atmosphere of crisis. The psychology of the market has shifted significantly, and investment management firms have been able to take advantage of recent stock gains. Improvement in the credit markets, as well as better than expected economic data, have also been a factor in the overall returns of separately managed accounts. Can the sharpest post-bear market surge since the 1930’s be sustainable, or are the markets due for a pullback?
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Fred Alger incorporates into their investment thinking the reality that the market is driven by an even mix of fundamentals and psychology. Psychology can best be described as the battle between fear and greed. The markets have experienced two cycles of fear (mid 2007, end of 2008/beginning of 2009) that have already had a major impact on the money management industry. But since the lows in March, fear has been residing, and there has been a significant rally. But before fundamentals and greed can take charge and control the future outcome of the markets, they believe greed will most likely rear its head one final time.
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Goldman Sachs provides its August 2009 Market Pulse summary with a slightly more technical approach. The money manager’s thoughts on short and long-term GDP influences, unemployment figures, Fed Policy, and the consumer, are all summarized and accompanied by insightful illustrations. Fixed Income predictions and an analysis of the booming middle class in Emerging Markets are also discussed.
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