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Estabrook envisions further advancement for the stock market over the next year, but the volatility will be a bit more erratic, and the overall gains not as large as the returns of 2009. Estabrook believes the major factor contributing to this will be the sharp recovery in corporate earnings. Looking beyond 2010 and into 2011, Estabrook sees a price target on the SP500 about twenty five percent more than the current index level.
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The role of the Federal Reserve during the past year and a half is dissected in this commentary from Eagle. The Fed has stepped out of its traditional role to help guide the domestic and international economies from the brink of a worldwide depression. Eagle believes the Fed has done a tremendous job in their navigation, and that they have restored the citizens’ faith in the economic system. Interest rates should remain at the levels they are currently at for the near future, as any rise would cause interest payments on reserves held at the treasury to increase.
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Despite the upwards move the market has made this past year, Lateef believes that there is still opportunities to be found in equities. A number of different factors are contributing to their outlook. The most important being the 3.3 trillion sitting on the sidelines parked in money markets, the increasing spread between the 2 and 10 year treasury bonds, stabilizing home prices, and the increases in corporate mergers and acquisitions.
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The decline in unemployment claims and the increasing trend in capital spending are boosting business and consumer confidence. Additionally, improving credit markets, advancing corporate profits, and increases in productivity, are all helping the broader economy recover. Although the equity market is near its highs, BlackRock believes that modest economic growth combined with accommodative monetary policy still presents an attractive long term backdrop for stocks.
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In their latest commentary, money manager Hillman Capital discusses what has happened with the markets and the economy, and where things are headed. Hillman sees signs of stabilization and a technical end to the recession. The credit market is thawing out and the overall environment is returning to normal with credit becoming more available. Leading indicators are improving and the consumer and business sector are starting to spend again. Although Hillman believes the near term signs of stabilization are evident, they remain cautious of the longer term as any unforeseen shocks to the consumer, a worsening job market, and federal debt levels could affect the timing and size of the economic recovery.
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In their latest money manager commentary, Federated Investors looks at the positive and negative data and indicators currently in the marketplace, and what lies ahead as we move closer to the year end. The question now has moved from, when will there be a recovery, to, how strong the recovery will be. Regional manufacturing increases, an expected strong holiday sales season, and the continued stance on monetary easing, should all help aid the recovery.
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Money Manager Neuberger Berman offers their state of the market address following the closing of the third quarter. The psychology of investors as well as massive government intervention, have helped steer the markets and the economy on the road to recovery. The upward movement in equities has also been supported by improving fundamentals. Manufacturing has started to expand, the labor market is stabilizing, credit markets are starting to normalize, and leading economic indicators continue to improve. Despite the positive trends, Neuberger does not see a strong economic boom in the near future. The consumer is still deleveraging, and unemployment should continue to remain high. But overall they believe it is still a good time to be an equity investor.
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In their latest money manager commentary, Clover Capital discusses the major economic themes of the market in every decade over the last thirty years. The 1970’s were defined by stagflation and high energy and commodity prices. The 1980’s saw the rise of Japan, junk bonds, the fall of the Soviet Union, and an economy that returned to normalcy. In the 1990’s the tech bubble and growth investing took center stage, while the “old economy”, value investing, and fundamentals were tossed aside. The beginning of the new century so far has been dominated by residential real estate speculation and the fear and panic that ensued after that burst. Where do we head from here? Although looking at the past trends can help shed light on the future, the one thing that will continue will be the patterns of human behavior that shape them.
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In the latest money manager commentary from Federated, equity market strategist Linda Duessel discusses and dissects the current economic data that is out there in the marketplace. There is positive news and indicators, but also some negative signs to watch out for. Is a pullback inevitable? What are the implications and outlook for the markets going forward?
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In Eagle’s latest money manager commentary, they explain what has been happening in the Small/Mid cap sector of the stock market since the March market lows. Low quality stocks have been out-performing high quality stocks. The stocks with the highest gains have been those with the lowest return on equity. These low quality stocks are not even expected to produce any earnings over the 12 months. Historically this has not been able to hold – since 1991 stocks that have produced earnings out-perform those that do not by about 300%.
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