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Given the current market, economic, and political environment, Roosevelt has recently added the defense sector into their portfolio to provide some risk management. Roosevelt believes that given the historically low beta, low price to earnings valuations, low correlation to the business cycle, and their price sensitivity compared to other equities surrounding geopolitical events, that defense stocks can act as an effective portfolio hedging tool.
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Lord Abbett believes the evidence continues to come in that shows the economic recovery is still intact. Retail sales are positive, the trend in GDP growth is positive, industrial production continues to improve and new orders are rising, and layoffs in the labor sector have moderated. Lord Abbett believes the threat of a double-dip recession is unlikely as long as the FED maintains their loose monetary policy.
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Posted by John Gibbs on 2/17/10 11:26 am
Avatar believes that the overall uptrend in the markets is still a dominant theme going forward. Although markets do not move in a straight line, the trend should remain intact. But on the horizon there are two potential factors that may alter the course and trajectory. The first being can the economy enter into a self sustaining recovery when the stimulus is pulled, and the second being what will happen when the Federal Reserve becomes less accommodative.
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Ashfield believes the economic recovery is continuing and the final pieces for a sustainable expansion, both small business confidence and employment gains, should be in place during the beginning of 2010. Going forward stock prices will return to being driven by fundamentals, with corporate revenue and profit gains being the catalysts.
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Roosevelt believes that the market may be reaching a temporary state of tiredness. The quarterly earnings that have come so far have been great, but equities have failed to react accordingly. This has sent Roosevelt a signal to be on guard and increase their risk management holdings in the event that the market begins to correct. That being said, Roosevelt believes there is plenty of evidence that the economic recovery continues. Consumer sentiment indicators continue to rise, consumer spending continues to rise, and the trend in employment data remains positive.
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Estabrook envisions further advancement for the stock market over the next year, but the volatility will be a bit more erratic, and the overall gains not as large as the returns of 2009. Estabrook believes the major factor contributing to this will be the sharp recovery in corporate earnings. Looking beyond 2010 and into 2011, Estabrook sees a price target on the SP500 about twenty five percent more than the current index level.
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The role of the Federal Reserve during the past year and a half is dissected in this commentary from Eagle. The Fed has stepped out of its traditional role to help guide the domestic and international economies from the brink of a worldwide depression. Eagle believes the Fed has done a tremendous job in their navigation, and that they have restored the citizens’ faith in the economic system. Interest rates should remain at the levels they are currently at for the near future, as any rise would cause interest payments on reserves held at the treasury to increase.
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Despite the upwards move the market has made this past year, Lateef believes that there is still opportunities to be found in equities. A number of different factors are contributing to their outlook. The most important being the 3.3 trillion sitting on the sidelines parked in money markets, the increasing spread between the 2 and 10 year treasury bonds, stabilizing home prices, and the increases in corporate mergers and acquisitions.
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The decline in unemployment claims and the increasing trend in capital spending are boosting business and consumer confidence. Additionally, improving credit markets, advancing corporate profits, and increases in productivity, are all helping the broader economy recover. Although the equity market is near its highs, BlackRock believes that modest economic growth combined with accommodative monetary policy still presents an attractive long term backdrop for stocks.
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In their latest commentary, money manager Hillman Capital discusses what has happened with the markets and the economy, and where things are headed. Hillman sees signs of stabilization and a technical end to the recession. The credit market is thawing out and the overall environment is returning to normal with credit becoming more available. Leading indicators are improving and the consumer and business sector are starting to spend again. Although Hillman believes the near term signs of stabilization are evident, they remain cautious of the longer term as any unforeseen shocks to the consumer, a worsening job market, and federal debt levels could affect the timing and size of the economic recovery.
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