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Posted by Valerie De Vol on 4/26/10 7:18 am
Recent equity market advances are confirming, largely, a view we have held that as the economy begins to give evidence of having reached a self-reinforcing growth phase, investors will start to get more interested in individual companies and less worried about the overall level of the market. That is, we move from a “stock market” more to a “market of stocks.“ This even leaves a bit of a trail that we monitor. For example, the average correlation between stocks tends to fall. The breadth of valuations of prospective earnings starts to widen. Stock selection techniques begin to have more traction. The percentage of trading volume accounted for by market and sector ETFs tends to recede. At the moment, these kinds of monitors are suggesting the market is rendering a decision that confirms a better economic and investment outlook.
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Macquarie believes that Sovereign risk continues to be at the forefront in the minds of investors and the market. With recent bond auctions under intense scrutiny, Macquarie believes that the bond markets are now in control of fiscal decisions, and that the era of long-term fiscal consolidation is under way.
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Federated believes that the economy and the market continue to show strength. Federated points to the recent February figures for employment, the ISM index, and retail sales as examples that are contributing to this strength. Corporate profits over the last two quarters have shown the largest rebound since World War II, and Federated believes that businesses will be a big catalyst for growth going forward.
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Emerson believes the economic recovery is in place, and that the message being given from the market must be respected. Emerson compares the recent positive and negative indicators in the economy as well as in the major market indices to determine where the market currently stands and what they expect as possible future outcomes.
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Astor believes that 2010 will be a positive year for the markets but the returns will be somewhere in the single digits. They think volatility will increase as the economy continues to recover and at times show mixed signals, although overall the state of things will be much calmer than 2009.
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Given the current market, economic, and political environment, Roosevelt has recently added the defense sector into their portfolio to provide some risk management. Roosevelt believes that given the historically low beta, low price to earnings valuations, low correlation to the business cycle, and their price sensitivity compared to other equities surrounding geopolitical events, that defense stocks can act as an effective portfolio hedging tool.
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Lord Abbett believes the evidence continues to come in that shows the economic recovery is still intact. Retail sales are positive, the trend in GDP growth is positive, industrial production continues to improve and new orders are rising, and layoffs in the labor sector have moderated. Lord Abbett believes the threat of a double-dip recession is unlikely as long as the FED maintains their loose monetary policy.
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Avatar believes that the overall uptrend in the markets is still a dominant theme going forward. Although markets do not move in a straight line, the trend should remain intact. But on the horizon there are two potential factors that may alter the course and trajectory. The first being can the economy enter into a self sustaining recovery when the stimulus is pulled, and the second being what will happen when the Federal Reserve becomes less accommodative.
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Ashfield believes the economic recovery is continuing and the final pieces for a sustainable expansion, both small business confidence and employment gains, should be in place during the beginning of 2010. Going forward stock prices will return to being driven by fundamentals, with corporate revenue and profit gains being the catalysts.
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Roosevelt believes that the market may be reaching a temporary state of tiredness. The quarterly earnings that have come so far have been great, but equities have failed to react accordingly. This has sent Roosevelt a signal to be on guard and increase their risk management holdings in the event that the market begins to correct. That being said, Roosevelt believes there is plenty of evidence that the economic recovery continues. Consumer sentiment indicators continue to rise, consumer spending continues to rise, and the trend in employment data remains positive.
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