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Posted by John Gibbs on 7/26/10 5:24 am
This year began with steady gains in stock prices along with an improving global economic picture. But during the second quarter, volatility returned to the market as investor confidence in the sustainability of the recovery waned. The quarter finished on a tumultuous note with most global stock indices down from their April post-recovery highs.
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Avatar believes the recent market decline appears to be caused by an identifiable slowdown in global growth, and further deterioration in the quality of sovereign debt. But against this backdrop Avatar has seen a big improvement in the corporate sector. Cost cutting and improved balance sheets have led to the largest ratio of corporate cash inflow to outflow on record.
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In this period of heightened market volatility, Abner Herrman continues to monitor short term price fluctuations, but their overall strategy is focused on the long term. Their overall economic and investment outlook going forward is one of moderate growth and low inflation, with higher than normal levels of unemployment. Abner Herrman continues to search for those companies who have strong management and new products and can be industry leaders in this environment.
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Lazard believes there are conflicting signals regarding the current economic conditions, which are affecting certain industry sectors differently. Technology and industrials appear to be resilient, while consumer goods and materials are showing weak trends. Energy, health care, and financials are focused on what transpires in Washington, and Lazard thinks that this trend towards government intervention will play a more prominent role in the years to come compared to any time in the last two decades. Lazard believes attractive opportunities for investors exist in finding those companies with healthy balance sheets, strong organic cash flow, and operational flexibility, as these companies should deliver better results over time.
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Although the domestic economy has returned to growth, Roosevelt believes the recovery is going through a fragile period. With uncertainty in the market they think companies with sustainable unit growth will be the ones who will see their share prices appreciate. Roosevelt continues to identify stocks that fit this description and continue to dedicate a portion of their portfolio for these names.
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Posted by John Gibbs on 6/22/10 7:15 am
Readers of economic history can look back to several examples of sovereign crisis: Argentina, Russia, Asia to name but a few. However, what we are witnessing at present is on a different scale. Focus for most of the past six months has been on Greece. However, this is simplifying a broader issue that began with a sub-prime debt problem, that rapidly became a western banking problem, that has now evolved into a sovereign debt problem.
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Posted by John Gibbs on 6/10/10 7:05 am
Despite what was a very volatile month for equities and the worst May for the Dow in 70 years, our base case outlook for the US economy remains unchanged. While the May employment report (published by the Labor department in early June) was a disappointment, employment data still indicate an economy growing at roughly a 3% clip. Our view is that the economic recovery continues, supported by a wide variety of data which encompass housing, employment, auto sales, durable goods orders, healthy inventory levels, hotel occupancy rates, railcar loadings and construction activity. Given this unchanged positive outlook, why did the stock marker come under so much pressure in May? We will cover this question in detail over the remainder of this month's letter
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The continued improvement in the U.S. economy has reached several important mileposts. GDP in current dollars (i.e., including inflation) has now exceeded the highest prior level, reached in 2008. Second, rather than cutting inventories, business is now beginning an actual increase in inventories as sales have risen to a point that translates into a need to keep up with demand. These developments are very important for business managers. They signal an environment which makes a "second dip" in the economy extremely unlikely and implicitly encourages business to assume we are entering a self-reinforcing expansion.
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Astor Asset Management's latest commentary takes a look at the past decade and discusses several topics to put today's world into perspective. After describing where we are now, they look ahead to 2010 and explain their prediction. Several different areas of the market and economy are discussed, including the US Dollar, emerging markets, government debts, and the yield curve.
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Posted by John Gibbs on 5/18/10 8:16 am
In our January publication, we stated that 2010 may be the year of duration and have warned clients of the need to manage duration risk. The Barclays Aggregate Index has recently delivered two months of negative returns: -1.56% in December 2009 and -0.12% in March 2010. These negative returns are being driven by duration, as 5 Year Treasury yields have risen 54bps from the end of November to the end of March, while the Barclay’s Corporate Index has actual spreads tightening from 172bps to 150bps over the same period. So, fundamentals matter. This is why we are very attentive to the trend of recent economic data.
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