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10 posts tagged with "Macquarie Allegiance Capital"
Money manager Macquarie Allegiance compares the actions of the US, EU and Chinese central banks over the last decade and how certain trends may be fading. "A lot of attention is on the Federal Reserve policy outlook, unsurprisingly because the economy is proving strong and the second round of quantitative easing is scheduled to end in June 2011. However, an international perspective would suggest that the Fed is no longer leading global policy; in fact the Fed is likely to be the next to last major developed country central bank to tighten monetary policy."
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Money manager Macquarie Allegiance's February newsletter details why they think Treasury yields will continue to increase, especially in the 10 year Treasury. "Our analysis shows that the improving trend of the economy has been pressuring Treasury yields higher. The current macro momentum suggests we are heading for the third test of 4.0% on the 10Y yield in this cycle. However, inflation pressures in the US remain low despite the added pressure coming from surging commodity prices. We conclude that the persistence of a large negative output gap is helping to contain inflation pressures."
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Money manager Macquarie Allegiance's January commentary reviews 2010 and provides their outlook for 2011. Graham McDevitt, the Co-Chief Investment Officer, believes the 'ride' this year will be significantly different compared to the rollercoaster of 2010. Read about their themes and risks facing investors in 2011 in this month's commentary.
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 10/7/10 1:42 pm
Fixed income remains our asset class of choice. With the Fed signaling its willingness to unleash QEII and a faltering growth outlook, Treasuries, we suspect will remain underpinned at the current low yields. With sound credit fundamentals, credit should continue to provide attractive yield. That said, with yields now at historic lows and spreads not too far from historic averages, the outsized returns from fixed income will be increasingly limited going forward.
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2010 is proving to be a great year for fixed income. For the year, the Barclays Aggregate Index is up 7.8% at the end of August. This compares favorably with equity markets, which remain in negative territory, around 4% through August. The surprise for fixed income investors has been the performance of Treasuries, where yields plunged below 2.5% on the 10-Year Treasury for the first time since December 2008.
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Readers of economic history can look back to several examples of sovereign crisis: Argentina, Russia, Asia to name but a few. However, what we are witnessing at present is on a different scale. Focus for most of the past six months has been on Greece. However, this is simplifying a broader issue that began with a sub-prime debt problem, that rapidly became a western banking problem, that has now evolved into a sovereign debt problem.
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 5/18/10 8:16 am
In our January publication, we stated that 2010 may be the year of duration and have warned clients of the need to manage duration risk. The Barclays Aggregate Index has recently delivered two months of negative returns: -1.56% in December 2009 and -0.12% in March 2010. These negative returns are being driven by duration, as 5 Year Treasury yields have risen 54bps from the end of November to the end of March, while the Barclay’s Corporate Index has actual spreads tightening from 172bps to 150bps over the same period. So, fundamentals matter. This is why we are very attentive to the trend of recent economic data.
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Macquarie believes that Sovereign risk continues to be at the forefront in the minds of investors and the market. With recent bond auctions under intense scrutiny, Macquarie believes that the bond markets are now in control of fiscal decisions, and that the era of long-term fiscal consolidation is under way.
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Posted by Valerie De Vol on 2/16/10 11:05 am
The macroeconomic indicators are rebounding with the continued help of easy global monetary and fiscal stimulus. Macquarie believes this trend should continue as the FED maintains their stance on low interest rates for the foreseeable future.
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The financial markets are rallying on all cylinders, and risk assets of all sorts are participating. These are not normal times and are not normal conditions, but Macquarie believes the situation and recipe are right for a continuation of positive returns for those who stay invested. The rally will further be fueled by low inflation and the expectation that inflation will remain low despite an increase in economic growth. The FED has been consistent with this belief and will continue its massive stimulus measure until growth is sustainable.
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