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Milton Ezrati, partner, senior economist and market strategist for money manager Lord Abbett explains why he believes equities will push higher. "The positive outlook for equities draws on many sources, but basically rests on two pillars: 1) continued economic growth that will sustain an earnings expansion and 2) still-favorable valuations prevail, despite the great rally since March 2009. Neither point, of course, is beyond complaint. Nothing in any investment outlook is absolutely secure. Now, as ever, prospects are overshadowed by a cloud of risks. But the likelihoods still favor the earnings growth and a favorable response from equity markets."
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Posted by Valerie De Vol on 10/22/10 9:16 am
With additional monetary easing potentially on the horizon, a more likely scenario is an economy that continues to "muddle through" with mediocre rates of growth. Still, the risks to this more optimistic outlook are real.
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Now that healthcare reform is the law of the land, the multi-trillion-dollar question is, who will prosper and who will suffer? Lord Abbett experts assess the potential opportunities and pitfalls in a complex and sometimes perplexing new environment, where many new rules have yet to be written.
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Although the recession may have ended in the third quarter of 2009, a number of threats to the recovery continue to loom. Some believe that one of these is the stagnation of the securitization market. As the Financial Times reported last year, "Securitized markets - which financed more than half of all credit in the United States in the years immediately preceding the crisis - are essential for the U.S. economy. Without a recovery in these markets, the flow of credit will not return to more normal levels, even if U.S. banks overcome their problems."
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It seems these days that half the headlines in the financial media fear a double-dip recession, as do half the conversations on Wall Street. There certainly are risks, not least in Europe's financial difficulties. But still, there are reasons to question such widespread concerns. History, after all, offers only one true double-dip experience, and that grew out of a policy error. More, the actual data on the economy fly in the face of such an outlook. Following are seven reasons to doubt the double-dip outlook.
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 6/30/10 2:45 pm
Buoyed by robust gains in the economy in recent months, many believed future growth would continue on the same plane, and invested accordingly. But while the economy continues to rebound, the pace of recovery has moderated, causing many to scramble to more defensive positions.
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 5/24/10 8:26 am
In fits and starts, the economy continues to rebound from the credit crisis and the worst recession since the Great Depression. Manufacturing is up, consumers have begun to shop again, and businesses are starting to spend again on technology. But some hurdles remain. The housing market continues to struggle, and banks are still reluctant to lend. Job creation remains anemic, though not abnormally so at this stage of recovery. More important are risks arising from the public sector. Uncertainty created by the prospect of healthcare reform legislation has continued despite passage of the bill, making employers even more reluctant to hire. Skepticism about promised cost savings has added to growing anxieties about the country’s fiscal condition and about the market for the Treasury securities. Midterm congressional elections, therefore, loom large as a key to the economy’s future.
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Cash surpluses and low interest rates are factors that may portend an increase in merger and acquisition activity, which could bolster the sentiment that ample value exists within corporate America. Lord Abbett examines this dynamic with insights from Milton Ezrati, Partner, Senior Economist and Market Strategist, and Christopher Towle, Partner & Director of High Yield and Convertible Investments.
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Lord Abbett believes the recovery continues to gain momentum and small cap stocks will persist in providing the market leadership. Coming out of recessions, Lord Abbett’s research has shown that small cap stocks tend to be the leaders and they believe that this trend should continue going forward for some time.
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Lord Abbett believes the evidence continues to come in that shows the economic recovery is still intact. Retail sales are positive, the trend in GDP growth is positive, industrial production continues to improve and new orders are rising, and layoffs in the labor sector have moderated. Lord Abbett believes the threat of a double-dip recession is unlikely as long as the FED maintains their loose monetary policy.
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