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It seems these days that half the headlines in the financial media fear a double-dip recession, as do half the conversations on Wall Street. There certainly are risks, not least in Europe's financial difficulties. But still, there are reasons to question such widespread concerns. History, after all, offers only one true double-dip experience, and that grew out of a policy error. More, the actual data on the economy fly in the face of such an outlook. Following are seven reasons to doubt the double-dip outlook.
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Buoyed by robust gains in the economy in recent months, many believed future growth would continue on the same plane, and invested accordingly. But while the economy continues to rebound, the pace of recovery has moderated, causing many to scramble to more defensive positions.
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In fits and starts, the economy continues to rebound from the credit crisis and the worst recession since the Great Depression. Manufacturing is up, consumers have begun to shop again, and businesses are starting to spend again on technology. But some hurdles remain. The housing market continues to struggle, and banks are still reluctant to lend. Job creation remains anemic, though not abnormally so at this stage of recovery. More important are risks arising from the public sector. Uncertainty created by the prospect of healthcare reform legislation has continued despite passage of the bill, making employers even more reluctant to hire. Skepticism about promised cost savings has added to growing anxieties about the country’s fiscal condition and about the market for the Treasury securities. Midterm congressional elections, therefore, loom large as a key to the economy’s future.
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Cash surpluses and low interest rates are factors that may portend an increase in merger and acquisition activity, which could bolster the sentiment that ample value exists within corporate America. Lord Abbett examines this dynamic with insights from Milton Ezrati, Partner, Senior Economist and Market Strategist, and Christopher Towle, Partner & Director of High Yield and Convertible Investments.
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In the quarter just ended, the U.S. stock market, using the S&P500 index as a proxy, has provided about half the total return we forecast for all of 2010 in the previous edition of this letter. This condition, when viewed in the context of the superior relative performance of the materials and industrials stock groups, implies that corporate earnings are improving at a pace at least as fast as consensus expectations. We therefore continue to maintain a near fully invested position in the equity portions of portfolios in recognition of the strong probabilities that the current economic recovery still is at a relatively early state and that corporate earnings in companies with cyclical leverage to the level of the economic activity are responding as envisioned.
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Lord Abbett believes the recovery continues to gain momentum and small cap stocks will persist in providing the market leadership. Coming out of recessions, Lord Abbett’s research has shown that small cap stocks tend to be the leaders and they believe that this trend should continue going forward for some time.
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Lord Abbett believes the evidence continues to come in that shows the economic recovery is still intact. Retail sales are positive, the trend in GDP growth is positive, industrial production continues to improve and new orders are rising, and layoffs in the labor sector have moderated. Lord Abbett believes the threat of a double-dip recession is unlikely as long as the FED maintains their loose monetary policy.
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The markets are continuing to rebound and the economy looks to be on a more solid stance. The shift into riskier assets continues as investors look for yield and become less risk-adverse. Equities have rebounded strongly from the market lows, but Lord Abbett thinks that cautious consumer spending habits could mean slower economic growth and lower corporate earnings.
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