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Lazard believes there are conflicting signals regarding the current economic conditions, which are affecting certain industry sectors differently. Technology and industrials appear to be resilient, while consumer goods and materials are showing weak trends. Energy, health care, and financials are focused on what transpires in Washington, and Lazard thinks that this trend towards government intervention will play a more prominent role in the years to come compared to any time in the last two decades. Lazard believes attractive opportunities for investors exist in finding those companies with healthy balance sheets, strong organic cash flow, and operational flexibility, as these companies should deliver better results over time.
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Lazard believes the fundamentals for the emerging markets equity class are as good as they have been since the 1970’s. Compared to the industrialized world, their financial systems are not overleveraged, and their consumers have more room to spend. Although emerging markets have risen quite substantially since the market bottom in early 2009, Lazard is still optimistic on the outlook for future growth.
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Economic conditions for investors have continued to improve during the last quarter, and for all of 2009, and Lazard believes that the quarters and years ahead will provide new opportunities. As the economy further deleverages and adjusts, the companies that will deliver strong results will be the ones that provide excellent cash flows, balance sheet growth, and operational flexibility.
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Although the economic and investing conditions are better than they were a year ago, uncertainty remains in the marketplace, and Lazard believes that fundamental research will play a key role in making investment decisions. As disinflation fades into history, companies with cash flow, strong balance sheets, and flexibility in their operations, will continue to deliver good results.
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