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23 posts tagged with "Federated Investors, Inc"
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 8/3/10 2:59 am
A month ago, we described the soft patch our economy was encountering as the pause that refreshes. Though clearly the numbers on everything from manufacturing and housing to consumer spending and employment have continued to be choppy, we still think that view is valid and that the preponderance of evidence argues against a double dip. The typical recession indicators just aren't there.
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Posted by Valerie De Vol on 6/29/10 8:32 am
Don't be surprised if you see investors storming their local pharmacies in search of relief this weekend, having manically bounced from suicidal tendencies to euphoria and back to fits of depression over the past two months, their mood swings incrementally triggered by the latest news headline or economic data point.
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 6/11/10 12:01 pm
Federated continues to view the telecom sector as an important portion of the overall All Cap Value strategy. Currently the cash dividend on the SP500 is around 2 percent, whereas the telecom holdings in the portfolio have dividends that range from 5 to 10 percent. Dividend growth is also another significant factor of overall return, and Federated believes their telecom positions will hopefully follow the example of Verizon and raise their respective dividend amounts this year.
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North Korea, oil spills, flash crash, Spanish banks, Thai riots, Germany's expanded naked selling ban, financial reforms, a 15% correction in a short period - am I forgetting anything? Before the mid-week rally, the market was at its deepest oversold condition since its March '09 lows on all the above-mentioned worries. This really isn't all that unusual. Morgan Stanley says a study of 19 cyclical bulls within secular bear markets saw a 25% correction after an initial rally of 71% off their cycle lows. Might this be a refreshing correction before a year-end rally? Interestingly, RBC cites a 100-year study with a 4-year cycle reset, which would indicate potential cycle lows toward the end of Q3 and early Q4. That would be good.
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For most investors, as we approach the long Memorial Day weekend that marks summer's unofficial start, the month of May can't end soon enough. From the "flash crash" the first week of the month, to rampant investor concerns about European sovereign debt, the potential for slowing Chinese growth, the escalation of military tensions in the Korean peninsula, the massive crude oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and a mixed bag of key economic metrics here in the U.S., the SP500 suffered its worst May point drop in history, and its worst May percentage decline since 1962.
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Largely on the strength of a surge in the sale of building materials and a steady rise in the sale of both autos and gasoline, the Commerce Department reported that nominal retail sales climbed for the seventh consecutive month in April by a stronger-than-expected 0.4%. Importantly, already-robust March results were revised sharply higher, to a headline gain of 2.1%, matching the single strongest retail-sales month since January 2006.
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Not to sound like a broken record, but the economy and the markets are playing out pretty much as we have been forecasting for the better part of a year. A traditional cyclical recovery has taken hold, putting equities on a plodding upward course, driven by rising corporate profits, strengthening economic fundamentals and attractive valuations relative to bonds. At 60% stocks, our benchmark moderate growth allocation model is at a healthy 8% equity overweight relative to bonds - 80% of our maximum overweight - and we recently raised out 12-month price target on the S&P 500 to 1,350 from 1,300.
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Federated believes we are coming out of a 25 year period where the interest of investors was fixated on rising stock prices, and away from the cash component of equities. Due to the recent economic and financial environment, Federated thinks that an increasing amount of investors will start seeking a better cash return on their investments, and that dividend strategies will do well as companies start to become more dividend oriented.
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Federated believes that the economy and the market continue to show strength. Federated points to the recent February figures for employment, the ISM index, and retail sales as examples that are contributing to this strength. Corporate profits over the last two quarters have shown the largest rebound since World War II, and Federated believes that businesses will be a big catalyst for growth going forward.
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The large cap value strategy from Federated is the topic of this commentary. The Manager Strategy Group at Wells Fargo Advisors recently had a meeting with Walter Bean and Daniel Peris, the portfolio managers of the large cap value approach. The report discusses the recent performance and the discipline behind the investment choices.
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