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21 posts tagged with "Economic Outlook"
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Stephen Auth, Chief Investment Officer at money manager Federated Investors, works his way through the various fears given as the cause of the current swoon in the markets. "As we assess the market actions this week, it strikes us that President Roosevelt's famous phrase remains very much in play. Ironically, this week's sell off actually accelerated when the current successor to FDR's mantel, President Obama, stepped in on Monday to calm markets, but instead seemed to frighten them further."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 8/2/11 1:59 pm
Money manager Federated Investors offers their perspective on the latest debt ceiling resolution from equity, fixed income, and money market points of view. "The United States' debt-ceiling impasse rattled stock, bond and money markets over the last several months, shaking investors' confidence in the U.S. political system in the process. With news that congressional leaders voted to approve and that the president has signed a measure to raise the debt ceiling and cut spending by $2.4 trillion, Federated's chief investment officers weigh in on the impact that the agreement will have on their markets."
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Wells Fargo is out with their weekly commentary, focusing on the US dollar as a "thermometer" for the markets. "The US dollar, a key indicator for finding international investment value, has been steady since April, reflecting a global economic moderation. As the slowdown fades, the dollar should gain on the main developed-market currencies but lose ground against the emerging-market currencies. Portfolios should remain balanced, ahead of expected opportunities as the economic pace again quickens."
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Money manager Alliance Bernstein discusses slower than expected growth during the first half of the year and makes a prediction for the coming second half. "US economic growth fell short of our forecast in the first half, owing to unexpected weakness in construction and defense, a spike in energy prices and supply disruptions. We expect faster growth in the second half, driven by gains in auto output and strong liquidity flows - if job markets gain traction."
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Wells Fargo's The Week discusses the recent economic slowdown across the globe. "The current global economic slowdown is likely temporary. Investors are advised to return to our recommended long-term allocations on international bonds, equities and commodities. We suggest this balanced stance entering the second half of 2011, anticipating new opportunities, once the uncertainty about the global economic expansion subsides."
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Wells Fargo is out with their 2011 Midyear Economic and Market Outlook, discussing what's changed and developed in the economy and markets in the first half of 2011, and what investors should expect during the second half of the year. The report addresses topics such as the economy, inflation, interest rates, currencies, commodities and more. A brief executive summary is included for those who prefer not to read the entire report.
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Money manager Alliance Bernstein looks at US exports and shows how they are contributing more and more to GDP growth. "Although the pace of economic recovery slowed in the first quarter, exports are still the key growth driver, driven by robust demand from emerging markets. In our view, an export-led expansion can help narrow the US trade balance, revitalize the depressed manufacturing sector and create jobs."
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Money manager Alliance Bernstein dives into the first quarter GDP number and revises their full year GDP outlook. "We remain optimistic about growth in the second half. An expected rebound in the motor vehicle sector and a recovery in defense and construction spending should prompt GDP growth of 4% to 5% during the second half of 2011. However, those projected gains in real GDP assume some relief in commodity price inflation, especially oil prices. All told, in light of the preliminary GDP data, we're lowering our economic growth estimates to between 3.0% and 3.25%, which is still about 0.5% above consensus but not as robust as we had expected when the year began."
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Money manager Neuberger Berman analyzes the slow decline of the US dollar's status among world currencies. "But is a declining dollar necessarily a bad thing? And what are the potential consequences of a weak dollar? Here are some broad observations about the impact of dollar valuation change - assuming the dollar's value will decline - and what it means to investors."
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"We are relieved to hear of progress in dealing with Japan's nuclear crisis and continue to track events there carefully. Meanwhile, the sentiment of global political uncertainty grows stronger with the allied intervention in Libya and the prolonged crisis conditions in the Persian Gulf. Still, while we recognize that there will be near and mid-term shocks to the system, we believe that these factors are unlikely to derail the current economic expansion. Japan is no longer a key driver of global growth, and Libya has already curtailed oil production. Other risks remain, including unrest in Bahrain, food and commodity inflation and sovereign debt."
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