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As the Credit Crisis unfolded over the past two years, banks made headlines by reporting unprecedented losses. Some of the most prominent financial institutions collapsed or teetered on the brink of insolvency, prompting the government to mount a massive, unparalleled rescue program. While the specifics of this last crisis may vary from those that came before it, we believe that the cyclicality of the banking industry continues to be relevant. As with every cycle, the losses are cleared away to make room for improvement. But the potential for this cyclical improvement, in our view, is currently being underestimated by investors.
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As a value manager, Clover believes it is important to know when your investment positioning is in line with the consensus market and economic views, and when it is not. Clover believes that staying with the crowd will ultimately bring despair, and that it is important to depart from the mainstream and implement a contrarian view in an investment formula.
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In their latest money manager commentary, Clover Capital discusses the major economic themes of the market in every decade over the last thirty years. The 1970’s were defined by stagflation and high energy and commodity prices. The 1980’s saw the rise of Japan, junk bonds, the fall of the Soviet Union, and an economy that returned to normalcy. In the 1990’s the tech bubble and growth investing took center stage, while the “old economy”, value investing, and fundamentals were tossed aside. The beginning of the new century so far has been dominated by residential real estate speculation and the fear and panic that ensued after that burst. Where do we head from here? Although looking at the past trends can help shed light on the future, the one thing that will continue will be the patterns of human behavior that shape them.
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Clover Capital offers some insight into the current stock market cycle we are experiencing. The “confusion” chapter which began with the market lows in March, and continues through today, is marked by rising stock prices and poor economic conditions. During this time period the S&P 500 posted its 16th best quarterly return since 1927. But what does this mean for the future?
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