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In our most recent Market Perspective we stated that we thought the highest probability in the near term was that the market was going to have an Intermediate Correction (where the market drops over 10% but not over 20%. A 20% drop is considered a Bear Market). "Probability" is the key word in the sentence above.
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Posted by John Gibbs on 6/1/10 9:00 am
The significant investment decision of the moment is to not allow the "Secular" to overwhelm the "Cyclical" and turn you from a "Bull" to a "Bear" when investing in the current market. While the economic news coming from the popular financial press continues to be bleak, in April the United States stock market was up for the twelfth time in the past fourteen months. How can that be? For a number of years we have communicated our research studies on two types of Stock Market cycles that impact the risks for investors, the "Secular" (longer term, 30 to 40 years) and the "Cyclical" (shorter term, 3 to 5 years).
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Churchill believes that the market may be in a current correction phase that may last over the next few months. Their proprietary fundamental, technical, and sentiment indicators are pointing towards an intermediate correction in the markets. Churchill believes that following this potential correction, there will be a second great buying opportunity that will lead to the second leg of the current bull market.
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The current bull market is now about 10 months old, and the average cyclical bull market usually lasts around 2 years. Churchill has analyzed past trends and they see that the average cyclical bull market has two legs to it, and that currently we are in the later stages of the first cycle. They believe that the odds are we will probably see some form of a market correction in the intermediate term, and that this could be a good thing because it will present a buying opportunity.
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In their latest money manager commentary, Churchill Management discusses investor sentiment and how the role of psychology shapes the cyclical nature of the stock market. From irrational exuberance to irrational despair, tops and bottoms are put into the market. Where is the market now? Churchill believes we are currently in the process of forming a cyclical bull market within a longer term secular bear. How long it lasts will depend on economic policies and indicators currently being formed.
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