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The debt crisis in Europe and ensuing sell-off in risk assets in the second quarter have raised fears that the global economy could slip back into recession. We view these events as a speed bump for the recovery, and maintain a bias toward higher quality assets in light of their attractive valuations and tendency to perform well during periods of weak economic growth.
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We entered 2010 expecting a modest cyclical recovery countered by the structural problems that faced most of the developed world. For the first part of the year, the cyclical recovery did dominate, but in recent months, structural problems (especially those in Europe) began to win out and risk assets have been struggling. Now at the mid-year point, we thought it would be a good opportunity to take a look back at the predictions we made at the beginning of the year to see where we stand.
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Many observers continued to express concerns about the possibility of a double-dip recession that could derail the current bull market. True double-dip recessions are very rare, and would require a significant shock to demand levels, which we do not think will occur. What we do believe we have been witnessing is a pullback in growth momentum and a decline in risk appetites - evens that are normal during economic recoveries.
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In this report, Bob Doll, BlackRock's Chief Equity Strategist for Fundamental Equities and head of the US Large Cap Series equity team, makes a threefold case for why US equities (and US multinationals in particular) offer compelling value for investors. First, the United States is in the midst of a strong cyclical recovery and is better positioned than other markets. Second, from a valuation perspective, US companies are attractively priced and offer stronger upside potential, particularly in the near term. And third, US multinationals offer exposure to fast-growing emerging markets with less potential risk that direct investments.
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Financial market volatility has increased over the past several weeks amid growing investor concern over happenings in Europe, the prospect of increased financial market regulation in the United States and, more generally, worry that the economic recovery has hit a rough patch. In Europe, the rescue package announced by the European Central Bank a couple of weeks ago should be enough to prevent the threat of an outright default by Greece, but investors remain concerned about the sharp fall in the value of the euro and are questioning whether the sovereign debt crisis will spill over into other markets.
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Posted by John Gibbs on 5/25/10 2:59 pm
Stocks continued to face high levels of volatility last week as a strong rebound in prices early on gave way to renewed weakness by week's end. Overall, markets did manage to post gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 2.3% to 10,620, the SP500 Index advancing 2.2% to 1,136 and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 3.6% to end the week at 2,347. Following these gains, stocks moved back into positive territory for the year.
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Posted by John Gibbs on 4/19/10 8:23 am
We remain comfortable with the view we initiated in the third quarter of 2009 to overweight equities as they have performed better relative to fixed income in the past six months. While we believe the economic recovery has gained ground, structural headwinds warrant maintaining a center of gravity around high-quality equities. At the same time, investors should look to opportunistically add lower quality assets as buying opportunities emerge.
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BlackRock believes that economic growth should continue to improve, which should lead to a boost in consumer confidence. Recently there has been an increase in corporate share buy-backs and merger and acquisition activity, which BlackRock views as a positive trend that further promotes an environment that is equity friendly. All of this leads BlackRock to believe that the cyclical bull market has further room to rally.
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BlackRock believes that the U.S. economy should continue to show growth for the coming year. The markets should continue to move upward, but not at the powerful advance that was seen in 2009. The amount of cash still on the sidelines, reasonable equity valuations, and an improving outlook for corporate earnings, should all help provide market support.
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BlackRock believes that the recession has ended and the global economy has entered a recovery phase. What this recovery will look like, and how fast it will play out, remains to be seen though. The stock market has posted strong gains during the past six months mainly due to the world not entering a depression and equities being undervalued. Sustaining the rally and the gains will require an underpinning of strong fundamentals and earnings. The period going forward should still be equity friendly. Slow growth, low inflation, and a continued stance on easy monetary policy from the Fed should all help.
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