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Recessions are often followed by significant changes in economic growth dynamics. Today, the housing sector is taking a backseat, while manufacturing production steams ahead. We think these trends will increasingly differentiate the current economic recovery from previous post-recession periods. Housing has always been one of the first sectors of the US economy to recover after a recession, driving strong gains in the residential construction activity, employment and overall real GDP growth. Yet, in the first year of the current economic rebound, the housing rebound has been anemic, and even substantial fiscal support has failed to revive the sector.
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Considered in their full context, the latest figures on jobs and work hours indicate gains in consumer income - the lifeblood of consumer spending - and offer evidence of the nation's continuing economic recovery. The latest figures on employment, hours and wages from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provide additional evidence of the nation's continuing economic recovery, even if new job figures are inflated by the hiring of temporary works for the 2010 US Census.
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Capital markets have come a long way from March 2009, and the global economic recovery seems increasingly sustainable - although risks remain. It was a fitful quarter for global equity markets, but they still managed to produce meaningful progress. Stocks rose tentatively in early January, but concerns about mounting fiscal debt caused them to give back their year-to-date gains - and then some. By mid-February, investors had refocused on good news and equity markets righted themselves with a rally that last through quarter end.
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Exports are poised to play a much bigger role than ever before in fueling the US economic recovery. With a wide range of US manufacturing industries generating more revenue and profit from overseas markets, we expect exports to imprint lasting changes on the US economic and business landscape.
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Alliance believes that the world economy continues to rebound from the widespread recession, and that global growth in 2010 should approach 3.5 percent. They see government stimulus packages continuing to bolster the rebound, consumption continuing to improve, the trend in global manufacturing is positive, and the weak dollar is doing its job and rebalancing capital flows and trade.
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The economy is showing more evidence that the recovery is gaining traction. Credit markets are continuing to heal and global stimulus is still only partially deployed. A rebound in manufacturing and industrial production, as well as a decrease in the number of job losses, leads Alliance to believe that increased growth will continue for the remainder of this year and into 2010.
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Alliance Bernstein believes that the recent market rally has brought some needed relief to investors. But as signs of an economic recovery build, risk and uncertainty remain in the marketplace. Opportunities can be found though as the continuation of risk aversion has created the potential for attractive returns in many investments.
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The game plan for the the Public-Private Investment Fund (PPIP) was further unveiled today by the Treasury Department. Nine investment managers will participate in helping the banking industry shore up their balance sheets by ridding them of their toxic residential and commercial mortgage securities. Alliance Bernstein will be among the key players who will kick the program into gear.
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