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23 posts tagged with "Alliancebernstein Lp"
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Money manager Alliance Bernstein discusses slower than expected growth during the first half of the year and makes a prediction for the coming second half. "US economic growth fell short of our forecast in the first half, owing to unexpected weakness in construction and defense, a spike in energy prices and supply disruptions. We expect faster growth in the second half, driven by gains in auto output and strong liquidity flows - if job markets gain traction."
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Money manager Alliance Bernstein looks at US exports and shows how they are contributing more and more to GDP growth. "Although the pace of economic recovery slowed in the first quarter, exports are still the key growth driver, driven by robust demand from emerging markets. In our view, an export-led expansion can help narrow the US trade balance, revitalize the depressed manufacturing sector and create jobs."
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Money manager Alliance Bernstein dives into the first quarter GDP number and revises their full year GDP outlook. "We remain optimistic about growth in the second half. An expected rebound in the motor vehicle sector and a recovery in defense and construction spending should prompt GDP growth of 4% to 5% during the second half of 2011. However, those projected gains in real GDP assume some relief in commodity price inflation, especially oil prices. All told, in light of the preliminary GDP data, we're lowering our economic growth estimates to between 3.0% and 3.25%, which is still about 0.5% above consensus but not as robust as we had expected when the year began."
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Posted by Valerie De Vol on 3/22/11 9:29 am
"Rising oil prices and the disaster in Japan have added new risks to the global economy in 2011. We have not yet changed our forecast for US growth of 3.8% this year. But we're watching closely for signs of higher energy prices eroding consumer spending, and monitoring the potential disruption on US manufacturing if supply chains from Japan face prolonged downtime."
Joseph G. Carson, US Economist and Director - Global Economic Research at Alliance Bernstein revisits Alliance Bernstein's 2011 forecast in consideration of recent events.
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Money manager Alliance Bernstein examines the world's global supply chain and illustrates a few improvements that could be made to more accurately reflect output. "The world's integrated global supply system is creating havoc in trade accounts. It's increasingly difficult to accurately measure who produces what and where. Forthcoming changes in the GDP framework will address some measurement issues, but we think it's time for a new accounting system to monitor trade."
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Joseph G. Carson, US Economist and Director at Alliance Bernstein, writes that the US recovery continued in 2010, but the pattern was uneven amid uncertainty on domestic policies, high joblessness and a debt crisis in Europe. They expect stronger growth in 2011, but the journey will likely be volatile again as new policies are deployed and a new political balance emerges in Congress.
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Money manager Alliance Bernstein outlines the tax package that will likely pass after reaching a political consensus. Once the votes are cast, attention will most likely turn towards the long-term fiscal sustainability and tax reform. Politicians must focus on reducing American's fiscal deficit while simultaneously encouraging a shift toward productive investment over the traditional domestic economic growth drivers of consumption and housing.
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Global money manager Alliance Bernstein analyzes the increase in consumer traffic and spending during the first shopping weekend of the holiday season. Although consumer confidence surveys remain weak, they think sentiment may soon improve if labor markets continue to strengthen and if current tax rates are extended by Congress. The US holiday shopping season got off to an encouraging start over the critical Thanksgiving weekend. Retail sales exceeded analyst expectations, online business boomed and there are even signs that consumers are beginning to spend more on big-ticket items such as cars.
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Since the start of 2010, our liquidity index has shown steady growth of 3.5%, indicating that the US economic recovery is on solid ground despite persistent fears of a double dip. We believe additional monetary stimulus by the Fed may prompt stronger liquidity gains and add momentum to GDP growth in 2011.
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Posted by Seton McAndrews on 11/18/10 10:25 am
In recent months, several major multinational companies announced plans to boost investment in the US. We think these moves may mark the start of a shift in global investment, production and trade patterns. But more incentives are needed to attract multinational manufacturing to the US, which could go a long way toward reducing the trade deficit.
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