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Gabriel F. Burczyk

Concerned About Inflation? Federal Reserve Lending Not What You Think

Posted by Gabriel F. Burczyk on 6/19/09 11:02 am

Many investors are worried that the financial system is flooded with money because of the surge in Federal Reserve lending since the financial crisis worsened last year. However, a complete picture of the supply of funds from Fed and non-Fed sources shows that the increase in Fed lending does not even offset one-sixth of the decline in non-Fed lending since the third quarter of 2007.

The supply of funds from non-Fed sources has dropped by more than a $6.0 trillion seasonally adjusted annual rate during the past six quarters. Non-Fed lending has declined because of de-leveraging in the financial system and because of reduced investor purchases of securities that proved to be more risky than originally thought before the financial crisis.

Federal Reserve lending in the three quarters ended in March averaged 23 times higher than its normal quarterly lending in the 10 years prior to the financial crisis. If this is the only part of the lending picture that you saw, you might think that the Fed is over doing it. However, a 23 fold increase in Fed lending is not inflationary when it only offsets some of the reduced lending from other sources.

Source: Gary Thayer, Chief Economist at Wells Fargo Advisors

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