Money Manager Research
The Fed this week unveiled "QE2 lite"- a new quantitative-easing tool. But it's not clear how much rolling over maturing mortgage-backed security debt into Treasuries can help. As Dallas Fed Senior Economist Thomas Siems said in The Wall Street Journal, "It's not a lack of liquidity that's holding back our economy. Investors and business leaders are waiting to learn more about future taxes and regulations."
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Many investors are worried that the economy is about to fall back into recession. These concerns are normal at this point in the economic cycle. As long as the economy can avoid any unexpected negative shocks that depress confidence and spending, another recession is unlikely at this time.
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Fundamentals and investor emotions are the two primary drivers of market performance. At times, emotions dominate short-term market performance, while fundamentals drive the market's longer term direction. We expected 2010 to be a year of "policy uncertainty" with investors frustrated by a lack of clarity in domestic fiscal policies, health care reform, regulation of financial firms, and the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq.
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Posted by John Gibbs on 8/13/10 7:42 am
As we close the month of July the S&P 500 index is essentially unchanged for the year, down 0.27%. While this sounds somewhat boring and uneventful, so far the year has been anything but. Macroeconomic issues have been at the forefront, ranging from concerns about sovereign debt problems in Europe, the possibility of a hard landing in China, increased regulatory intervention globally, and the possibility of a "double-dip" into recession in the U.S. These concerns, abetted by somewhat tepid economic data in this country, the oil spill, and the May "flash crash", have resulted in a volatile market that has left many investors feeling exhausted and risk averse.
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Over the past several decades, it has been easy for investors to assume that, in general, the sovereign debt of developed market countries was safer than that of emerging market sovereign debt. However, the fundamentals of the world economy are changing. A combination of the growth of the emerging markets, especially the BRIC countries, along with prudent management of their fiscal situations combined with structural problems in many developed market economies has blurred the distinction between the two categories.
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The US economic rebound has been relatively modest, in contrast with previous recoveries from deep recessions. Although the initial stage of recovery was sparked by a new mix of growth drivers, led by exports, we believe that a sustainable cycle will require broader contributions from domestic sectors as well.
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Posted by John Gibbs on 8/10/10 8:42 am
When driving a car, your focus of attention shifts back and forth between the distant horizon and the road immediately ahead. Experienced drivers do this naturally, but this can be a challenge for new drivers. Looking off into the distance allows you to see where the road may be turning. But, you also need to keep your eyes on the road in front of you so you don't hit a pot hole. Successful investing often requires the same shift in focus.
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For China, 2009 will be remembered as the year it took a permanent seat at the world's financial table. With much of the rest of the world stalled in recession, China launched a massive stimulus package, which not only stabilized its domestic economy but also helped to resuscitate global demand, especially for commodities. With a significant portion of the stimulus earmarked for infrastructure projects, China's stimulus simultaneously fueled economic expansion and aggressive modernization efforts, which were easily absorbed in the underdeveloped rural areas.
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The debt crisis in Europe and ensuing sell-off in risk assets in the second quarter have raised fears that the global economy could slip back into recession. We view these events as a speed bump for the recovery, and maintain a bias toward higher quality assets in light of their attractive valuations and tendency to perform well during periods of weak economic growth.
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Posted by John Gibbs on 8/3/10 2:59 am
A month ago, we described the soft patch our economy was encountering as the pause that refreshes. Though clearly the numbers on everything from manufacturing and housing to consumer spending and employment have continued to be choppy, we still think that view is valid and that the preponderance of evidence argues against a double dip. The typical recession indicators just aren't there.
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