Money Manager Research
Wells Fargo's Chief Macro Strategist Gary Thayer examines the potential help that foreign countries could provide to the U.S. via interest rate cuts. "The U.S. economy has weathered many problems during the past year and has proven more resilient than many investors expected. The good news is the U.S. economy could benefit if inflation subsides this year. That’s because several of the foreign countries that raised interest rates to fight inflation early last year could cut interest rates early this year if inflation decreases as the global economy slows down."
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Eagle Asset Management recently held a roundtable discussion with many of their portfolio managers, each offering informed perspectives on the current market situation and potential investment opportunities. "Headwinds from 2011 are likely to continue into 2012, with new twists and opportunities. Volatility - while challenging in the short term - can create unique opportunities for long-term investors with a focus on business fundamentals, company specifics and a reasonable investment horizon. Ultimately, valuations matter and the current tone of negativity may present a reasonable environment for active, experienced investors."
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John and Nick Calamos have released their latest commentary reviewing 2011 and looking forward to 2012. They analyze the changes that have taken place in the world and find that none so far have provided real and long-term solutions. Even so, they do see the equity markets as the best way to take advantage of global growth opportunities. "Indeed, even as we anticipate high volatility in the markets, we see significant growth potential in the global economy driven by secular themes related to emerging market consumers, infrastructure build-out and rebuilding, and technology innovation. We believe the equity markets provide the best way to access global growth opportunities, and with far better risk/reward characteristics than most countries' government bonds."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 1/9/12 11:30 am
Wells Fargo's Chief Macro Strategist Gary Thayer shares his thoughts on the upcoming fourth quarter earnings season. "The fourth-quarter earnings reporting season begins this week. The good news is expectations are low despite the economy showing some signs of improvement. We believe investors are more likely to see better-than-expected results rather than weaker-than-expected results."
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Chief Equity Strategist for BlackRock Bob Doll reviews their asset allocation outlook for 2012. Their equity, fixed income and municipal fixed income outlooks for 2012 are also discussed. "Conditions have improved compared to last quarter, with the US economy showing signs of acceleration and European policymakers moving further along the path of progress. With the bearish tone receding, investors should consider moving into "risk" assets and out of "safe" assets, especially on pullbacks."
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Louis Navellier gives his forecast for 2012, focusing on the presidential election cycle and the European debt fiasco. "Like many investors, we view the New Year as an exciting time, especially since 2012 is a presidential election year. If history repeats itself, the stock market will rally right up to the November presidential election. Both consumer and investor confidence should improve when the presidential field narrows to the final two candidates who typically run around and suck up to voters. We realize there will be negative ads, similar to what are already airing in Iowa; but in the end, one cannot be elected President of the United States unless you are a happy, positive person, so we predict the presidential candidates will continue to smile regardless of political action committee (PAC) financed negative ads."
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BlackRock's annual list of predictions for the coming year is out. Chief Equity Strategist Bob Doll explains each and the reasoning behind them. "In summary, 2012 is likely to feature a slow-growth world that includes a recession in Europe. The United States faces headwinds, but manages to achieve growth of between 2% and 2.5%."
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For a better understanding of how the problems in Europe affect other countries around the globe, take a few minutes to read Lord Abbett's latest commentary. "Europe is spreading pain around the world in so many different ways that the catalogue has reached ungainly proportions. The panic from the risk of default and the possible dismantling of the euro has gained the headlines and depressed most asset prices across the globe. The austerity measures, seemingly demanded by the situation and certainly by the European Union (EU) and the European Central Bank (ECB), have clearly set Europe on a recessionary path that threatens the pace of global growth."
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Wells Fargo's Chief Macro Strategist Gary Thayer takes a look at the level of investor fear, which seems to be declining due to positive US economic news. "Recent market action suggests that investors are less fearful than they were last summer. However, investors are still cautious. If the stock market continues to recover as the economic fundamentals suggest, sentiment is likely to turn more positive."
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Posted by Valerie De Vol on 12/22/11 10:15 am
A recent compliance alert from ACA Compliance Group describes the SEC's initiative to combat fraud in hedge funds, known as the Aberrational Performance Inquiry. The program "aims to identify "abnormal" fund performance, that is, fund performance that is inconsistent with fund strategies and/or benchmarks."
In an attempt to "thwart various illegal practices," the SEC "will pay particular attention to returns consistently greater than three percent of their respective market index."
Source: ACA Compliance Group
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