Money Manager Research
Posted by John Gibbs on 7/28/10 7:40 am
If you are worried and suffering from emotional problems, you may go to a therapist for advice and reassurance. You want to hear the therapist say that everything will be fine. You don't want to hear him or her exclaim, "Wow! You've got big problems!" Unfortunately, that's what many people thought they heard Fed Chairman Bernanke say when he testified last week.
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Overall, we remain especially bullish on our growth stock portfolios, since we are now in the midst of another stunning earnings season and a weak U.S. dollar will help boost corporate profits even further. The technology boom that we are riding cannot be stopped by a sovereign debt crisis, an oil spill, or whatever the latest crisis that the financial news media likes to report.
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Posted by John Gibbs on 7/26/10 5:24 am
This year began with steady gains in stock prices along with an improving global economic picture. But during the second quarter, volatility returned to the market as investor confidence in the sustainability of the recovery waned. The quarter finished on a tumultuous note with most global stock indices down from their April post-recovery highs.
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It seems these days that half the headlines in the financial media fear a double-dip recession, as do half the conversations on Wall Street. There certainly are risks, not least in Europe's financial difficulties. But still, there are reasons to question such widespread concerns. History, after all, offers only one true double-dip experience, and that grew out of a policy error. More, the actual data on the economy fly in the face of such an outlook. Following are seven reasons to doubt the double-dip outlook.
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In our most recent Market Perspective we stated that we thought the highest probability in the near term was that the market was going to have an Intermediate Correction (where the market drops over 10% but not over 20%. A 20% drop is considered a Bear Market). "Probability" is the key word in the sentence above.
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Posted by John Gibbs on 7/20/10 7:47 am
"During my recent vacation I had an opportunity to visit many beautiful places, and like most people, I took a lot of pictures. However, when I reviewed those pictures later, I realized that they just didn't capture the whole view. This is a problem with photography. When you focus on one or two things, you don't always see the bigger context in the individual shots. Focusing on individual factors and missing the bigger picture is not just a problem in photography. Investors often experience this same problem."
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Simon Baker and King Lip, of Baker Avenue Asset Management, were recently interviewed by CNBC regarding their All Cap Core strategy. The central premise of the buy and hold strategy, how it ignores the changes in risk in the market, and the dynamic approach of capturing the upside and protecting the downside, were the main themes discussed. Access the entire Baker Avenue Asset Management interview here.
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Avatar believes the recent market decline appears to be caused by an identifiable slowdown in global growth, and further deterioration in the quality of sovereign debt. But against this backdrop Avatar has seen a big improvement in the corporate sector. Cost cutting and improved balance sheets have led to the largest ratio of corporate cash inflow to outflow on record.
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In this period of heightened market volatility, Abner Herrman continues to monitor short term price fluctuations, but their overall strategy is focused on the long term. Their overall economic and investment outlook going forward is one of moderate growth and low inflation, with higher than normal levels of unemployment. Abner Herrman continues to search for those companies who have strong management and new products and can be industry leaders in this environment.
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Lazard believes there are conflicting signals regarding the current economic conditions, which are affecting certain industry sectors differently. Technology and industrials appear to be resilient, while consumer goods and materials are showing weak trends. Energy, health care, and financials are focused on what transpires in Washington, and Lazard thinks that this trend towards government intervention will play a more prominent role in the years to come compared to any time in the last two decades. Lazard believes attractive opportunities for investors exist in finding those companies with healthy balance sheets, strong organic cash flow, and operational flexibility, as these companies should deliver better results over time.
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