Money Manager Research
Louis Navellier looks at oil prices and the elections in Greece and France, and what it all means for the markets. "The S&P 500 fell 1.1% last week. The initial drop was in response to election results in France and Greece, followed by the shocking news of a $2 billion trading loss at J.P. Morgan Chase*. The Dow (which includes JPM) suffered its worst week of the year, down 1.7%. However, the Russell 2000 only fell 0.2%. While the soap opera in Greece may continue to dominate the news, I still believe that rising earnings in an election year should lift most U.S. stocks higher during the rest of 2012."
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Lord Abbett's Milton Ezrati takes a look at the pros and cons of the increase in consumer spending over the last few quarters. "Since late 2011, measures of consumption show acceleration in virtually all categories, despite the recent rise in gasoline prices. In one sense, this is good news for the economy, as it will push the pace of overall growth and, ultimately, prompt more hiring, which in itself will reinforce spending growth. But-and there is always a but-this new trend raises longer-term concerns. More liberal consumer spending can only take the economy so far. Because heightened levels of consumption will limit households' abilities to make needed improvements in their finances, any effort to boost outlays too far too fast would only threaten pinched finances at a later date, followed by spending cutbacks, say in 2014 or 2015, with all the recessionary influence that would impose on the economy in general."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 5/14/12 2:08 pm
Chief Macro Strategist at Wells Fargo, Gary Thayer, explains why he believes the recent pullback in the market has created a buying opportunity for investors. "Two months ago, investors seemed to be increasingly optimistic that the worst of last year's troubles were behind us. But at the same time, many were reluctant to get back into the stock market because it had already rallied strongly during the first quarter. The stock market has pulled back since early April, creating a buying opportunity. However, sentiment is not as positive now, and many investors may again be reluctant to get into the market. Our work suggests that pull backs are still buying opportunities. We continue to expect the stock market to be modestly higher at year end."
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Phil Orlando, Chief Market Strategist at Federated Investors, reviews the latest economic reports and answers the question, 'should you sell in May and go away?' "We continue to believe that the economic weakness we're currently experiencing is both temporary and consistent with our long-standing soft-patch forecast, and we fully expect that a healthy 5-10% correction from slightly frothy spring peaks will reverse back to the upside later this year."
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WHV Investments (Wentworth Hauser & Violich) is out with their first quarter commentary. They discuss the global markets, the various holdings of their International Equity portfolio, and how each sector contributed to the portfolio's overall performance. "Global equity markets continue to battle with investor fears of weak economic growth in the U.S., a slowdown in growth for the emerging markets, and a recession in Western Europe. The U.S. economy has stabilized and the consensus forecast of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators predicts GDP growth of 2.3% in 2012 and 2.6% in 2013. China is addressing some inflationary problems and may end up easing sooner rather than later but we believe they should be able to negotiate a soft landing. In our view, the biggest threat to the U.S. and global economy in 2012 is still the sovereign debt crisis in Europe."
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Navellier describes how they think Sunday's French election of Hollande could affect Europe's debt crisis. "The victory of the Socialist Party in France may eventually result in a complete overhaul of debt bailout plans for euro-zone nations. Complicating matters further, 11 European countries are now officially in a recession. In America, the stock market was more worried about Friday's payroll report than Sunday's election."
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Posted by Thomas Wilson on 5/8/12 1:32 pm
The market and U.S. Presidential election cycles are discusses in this week's commentary from Wells Fargo's Chief Macro Strategist Gary Thayer. "Investors are closely watching the outcome of this month's European elections and are trying to anticipate potential market action ahead of the U.S. elections in November. Out analysis of the average monthly percentage change in the S&P 500 between 1946 and 2011 reveals Presidential election years can be a challenge for the U.S. stock market. However, other macro economic factors, especially inflation, may also play an important role in stock market performance this year."
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Louis Navellier's latest commentary reviews the recent US GDP figures and compares them to Europe's declining net GDP. "The market roared back strongly last week, especially the NASDAQ (+2.29%) and the Russell 2000 (+2.66%). With one trading day left in April, the market is flat for the month and up double-digits for the year. Now, we must contend with the nervous "sell in May and go away" crowd, which is inventing new reasons to panic. To me, these reasons look suspiciously old, like slow GDP growth and European credit woes, but quarterly earnings are still surprisingly strong and stocks respond most to earnings."
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Lord Abbett discusses the latest jobs report in-depth and what they expect with the economy moving forward. "The recent weak jobs report should serve as a wake-up call to economic reality. The disappointing news that payrolls in March expanded at only a meager 120,000 was far from momentous in itself. But it should, nonetheless, remind investors and businesspeople that earlier signs of strength overstated the fundamentals and that the recovery, though reasonably secure, was plodding all along, as it has for some time now and will likely continue to do."
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Eagle Asset Management is out with their first quarter 2012 commentary for their Small Cap Growth and Mid Cap Growth portfolio strategies. "We believe the European crisis interrupted a strong bull market that began off the March 2009 bottom. Retail investors stung by the 2008 financial crisis remain, for the most part, on the sidelines but we believe there are signs indicating asset flows into fixed income could reverse as interest rates trend higher. Some of that money likely will flow into the equity market. And as we move closer to the presidential election, government policy should continue to be pro-growth. The possible reversal of the restrictive healthcare law as well as the increasing probability both houses of Congress will go Republican should serve as positive catalysts."
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